RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

CPB: tekort loopt verder op

Volgens de juni-raming van het CPB komt het begrotingstekort dit jaar uit op 3,5% en in 2014 op 3,7% van het BBP. Dit bevestigt wat al langer duidelijk is: er moet extra bezuinigd worden om volgend jaar aan de 3%-tekortnorm te voldoen.


Country Report Egypt (Engelstalig)

The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.


Country Report Nicaragua (Engelstalig)

Nicaragua has a weak political and economic structure, as well as a low standard of living. Economic growth has been quite strong in recent years. Nicaragua’s heavy reliance on support Venezuela is a big vulnerability.


Country Report Suriname (Engelstalig)

The Surinam economy has grown relatively rapidly recently. The country has a current account surplus and government debt is low at 20% of GDP. Shortcomings are weak external relations, weak institutions and a narrow economic base.


Country Report Mexico (Engelstalig)

Important sectors of the Mexican economy are characterized by a low level of competition. Positive in this respect is that new President Peña Nieto intends to reform these markets with the help of the opposition.


Country Report Peru (Engelstalig)

Investment in large mining projects is likely to continue in Peru, although an escalation in the conflict with local communities could hurt the investment climate. A U-turn in his energy policies has dented the popularity of President Humala.


Country Report Botswana (Engelstalig)

Botswana’s economy remains largely dependent on diamond mining. As a result of weak external demand for diamonds, economic growth has slowed down last year. The fiscal position improved substantially and the budget is now recording a small surplus.


Country Report Tunisia (Engelstalig)

Political polarization and an upsurge in radicalization make stability maintenance a challenge for Tunisia, while its realization is essential for a recovery of the economy and for restoring the increasing external and fiscal imbalances.


Country Report Angola (Engelstalig)

Angola is an oil-rich country and Africa’s second largest oil exporter. Angola’s economic growth is highly dependent on oil price developments and a declining international oil price will therefore remain a cause of concern.


Country Report Colombia (Engelstalig)

Peace talks between the FARC and the government are likely to be protracted, but could boost the reputation of Colombia and the energy sector. Meanwhile, an important tax reform could reduce the high income inequality and labour informality.


Country Report Philippines (Engelstalig)

The Philippines has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability despite a weak external environment. Meanwhile, helped by large and steady remittances inflows, the country’s external (liquidity) position remains strong.


Country Report Argentina (Engelstalig)

Argentina’s economy is likely to recover modestly in 2013, but the peso has fallen rapidly on the informal market, as a devaluation is widely expected. Meanwhile, there is the risk that Argentina will enter a technical default.