RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

UK: Osborne loses his cherished AAA (Engelstalig)

Moody’s decision to downgrade the UK’s government bond rating should not come as a surprise to investors. That said, the lower rating is a huge blow for Mr. Osborne since his austerity plan was partly based on maintaining the AAA-rating of the UK.

Landenrapport

Country Report India (Engelstalig)

Economic growth is India is slowing to the lower end of the 5-6% range. Decisive government action could give a boost to growth, but with elections scheduled for 2014 there seems little room.

Landenrapport

Country Report Poland (Engelstalig)

Being hailed as the only EU country without a recession during the 2008/09 global financial crisis, all eyes are on Poland now that the economy is slowing.

Special

Mind the fiscal speed limit (Engelstalig)

The current debate amongst economists regarding the timing of fiscal consolidation is not yet resolved. In this Special we present evidence that fiscal policy has a larger short-term negative impact on growth than the government currently expects.

Landenrapport

Country Report Bangladesh (Engelstalig)

Bangladesh has posted strong growth in the face of a deteriorating external environment. In 2012, the economy expanded by 6.3% and is expected to grow by around 6% in 2013. Bangladesh remains one of the poorest countries in the world.

Landenrapport

Country Report Paraguay (Engelstalig)

Paraguay’s GDP growth is estimated to increase to around 9.5% in 2013, as conditions have improved markedly recently. Fernando Lugo was impeached last year and interim president Franco will remain in charge until the April 2013 elections.

Landenrapport

Country Report South Korea (Engelstalig)

South Korea’s economic growth has slowed to around 2% in 2012. Presidential elections in 2012 passed smoothly, with Park Guen-hye winning the elections. The situation in North Korea has deteriorated as the regime has performed a third nuclear test.

Landenrapport

Country Report Tanzania (Engelstalig)

Tanzania grew 6.8% in 2012 and expects 7% growth in the coming years. Gas reserves discovery can boost the economy, but high corruption can cause discontent with Tanzanians and donors. Readily available financing accommodates the large twin deficit.

Landenrapport

Country Report Vietnam (Engelstalig)

With improved economic policies the government has been able to stabilize the economy since early 2011. The external liquidity position improved, but remains weak. In case confidence in the economy falters again, improvements could be undone quickly.

Landenrapport

Country Report Costa Rica (Engelstalig)

In 2011 and 2012 the Costa Rican economy grew by 4.2 and 4.9%, respectively. The outlook is rather favorable, we expect the economy to grow by around 4% per year in the coming years. Main risk right now is the financial position of the government.

Themabericht

The inflation genie must not leave the bottle (Engelstalig)

There is an on-going debate in the UK regarding the merits of nominal GDP targeting. Of course, ‘out-of-the box’ thinking is welcome but the risk of switching to a new policy framework is high because it can destabilise inflation expectations.

Landenrapport

Country Report Hungary (Engelstalig)

Hungary’s economy fell back into recession last year and growth is expected to remain negative in 2013. Its government managed to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, but very high foreign currency-denominated debt remains a major source of risk.

Landenrapport

Country Report Romania (Engelstalig)

Romania’s recovery from the crisis in 2009-2010, when GDP fell by 6.5%, has yet to gain pace. We expect the economy to have grown by a meager 0.2% in 2012. The slow growth is largely caused by the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slow demand.

Landenrapport

Country Report Rwanda (Engelstalig)

Rwanda’s is in trouble. Due to the UN’s claims of involvement in the violence in DR Congo, several donors withdrew their support. This hits Rwanda hard, as donor income accounts for a large part of foreign exchange and fiscal income.