RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Het poldermodel 2.0 (Macro Comment)

Het kabinet is gevallen, maar het is haar toch gelukt om in samenwerking met D66, GroenLinks en de ChristenUnie tot een begroting voor 2013 te komen die in de richting van de 3% gaat. Het resultaat van toont aan dat er een weg is, als er een wil is.

Landenrapport

Luxembourg (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Economic growth was very disappointing in 2011 thanks to the weakening of global activity and European debt crisis. Going forward, Luxembourg's growth performance is unlikely to return to the lofty levels witnessed earlier this decade.

Landenrapport

Portugal (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Portuguese economic activity fell sharply over the past year. We expect the economy to contract further this year as government austerity pushes down domestic demand and export growth will not be strong enough to compensate for this.

Landenrapport

Singapore (Country report) (Engelstalig)

The Singaporean economy is slowing against the backdrop of weaker global growth and heightened global uncertainty. Key risks are a sharp and protracted downturn in large advanced economies and extreme financial stress spreading from the eurozone.

Landenrapport

The Netherlands (Country report) (Engelstalig)

In the aftermath of the financial crisis the Dutch economy managed to recover as it was able to benefit from expanding world trade. Lately however the economy has slowed down, ending up in recession in the latter half of 2011.

Landenrapport

United States (Country report) (Engelstalig)

The US economic recovery is expected to continue this and next year, but growth will remain below trend. Any serious attempt to reduce the budget deficit is not expected until after the November 2012 Presidential and Congressional elections.

Landenrapport

Bermuda (Country update) (Engelstalig)

On Bermuda, the (re)insurance and tourism sectors dominate, which means that a slow recovery in the US and Europe weighs on economic growth.

Landenrapport

Argentina (Country report) (Engelstalig)

In mid-April Argentina’s government grabbed international headlines when it partially nationalized YPF, Argentina’s largest energy company. Meanwhile, Argentina’s economic policy framework is resulting in increasing macroeconomic pressures.

Landenrapport

China (Country update) (Engelstalig)

Growth in China is slowing in line with a soft landing scenario (around 8.3% in 2012), but the need for structural reforms is insufficiently addressed. Inflation has fallen to around 3.5%.

Landenrapport

Vietnam (Country update) (Engelstalig)

Vietnam’s economy remains highly vulnerable and growth is running below trend at 5.9% in 2011. Inflation has fallen somewhat relative to 2011, but remains high and in double-digit territory.

Landenrapport

Canada (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Canada remains a well governed country and boasts a strong economy. The economic recovery is underway and is expected to continue, albeit at a more modest pace.

Landenrapport

Finland (Country report) (Engelstalig)

The Finnish economy recovered strongly from the deep 2009 recession. Due to headwinds in the external environment, the growth outlook for 2012 and 2013 is weak.

Landenrapport

Greece (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Due to the self-defeating character of the huge austerity package, the Greek economy still experiences a deep recession while the government did not manage to continue narrowing the budget deficit substantially.

Landenrapport

Germany (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Germany’s strong economic recovery and resilient labour market have ensured the country’s safe haven status. The country’s banking sector still has large cross-border exposures, especially to the vulnerable Southern European countries.