RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Het poldermodel 2.0 (Macro Comment)

Het kabinet is gevallen, maar het is haar toch gelukt om in samenwerking met D66, GroenLinks en de ChristenUnie tot een begroting voor 2013 te komen die in de richting van de 3% gaat. Het resultaat van toont aan dat er een weg is, als er een wil is.

Landenrapport

Serbia (Update country report) (Engelstalig)

Serbia's external position remains weak, while the position of the government is also vulnerable, reflected by sizable fiscal deficits and public debt.

Landenrapport

Egypt (Country update) (Engelstalig)

Egypt’s political and economic outlook remains fragile. It is estimated that the country requires roughly USD 11bn in the next two years to prevent a fiscal and/or balance of payments crisis.

Landenrapport

Poland (Country report) (Engelstalig)

After growing strongly with 4.3% in 2011, the economy of Poland is expected to slow to a still respectable 2-3% in 2012. Considering the sovereign-debt-sensitive market is continuation of current fiscal consolidation important.

Landenrapport

Israel (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Israel’s modern, high-tech, open and service based economy is expected to slow from 4.8% in 2011 to 2% in 2012. Contagion from the Arab Spring hit Israel when massive street protests ensued in July 2011, and social unrest could flare up again.

Landenrapport

Bermuda (Country update) (Engelstalig)

On Bermuda, the (re)insurance and tourism sectors dominate, which means that a slow recovery in the US and Europe weighs on economic growth.

Landenrapport

Argentina (Country report) (Engelstalig)

In mid-April Argentina’s government grabbed international headlines when it partially nationalized YPF, Argentina’s largest energy company. Meanwhile, Argentina’s economic policy framework is resulting in increasing macroeconomic pressures.

Landenrapport

China (Country update) (Engelstalig)

Growth in China is slowing in line with a soft landing scenario (around 8.3% in 2012), but the need for structural reforms is insufficiently addressed. Inflation has fallen to around 3.5%.

Landenrapport

Vietnam (Country update) (Engelstalig)

Vietnam’s economy remains highly vulnerable and growth is running below trend at 5.9% in 2011. Inflation has fallen somewhat relative to 2011, but remains high and in double-digit territory.

Landenrapport

Canada (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Canada remains a well governed country and boasts a strong economy. The economic recovery is underway and is expected to continue, albeit at a more modest pace.

Landenrapport

Luxembourg (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Economic growth was very disappointing in 2011 thanks to the weakening of global activity and European debt crisis. Going forward, Luxembourg's growth performance is unlikely to return to the lofty levels witnessed earlier this decade.

Landenrapport

Portugal (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Portuguese economic activity fell sharply over the past year. We expect the economy to contract further this year as government austerity pushes down domestic demand and export growth will not be strong enough to compensate for this.

Landenrapport

Singapore (Country report) (Engelstalig)

The Singaporean economy is slowing against the backdrop of weaker global growth and heightened global uncertainty. Key risks are a sharp and protracted downturn in large advanced economies and extreme financial stress spreading from the eurozone.

Landenrapport

The Netherlands (Country report) (Engelstalig)

In the aftermath of the financial crisis the Dutch economy managed to recover as it was able to benefit from expanding world trade. Lately however the economy has slowed down, ending up in recession in the latter half of 2011.