RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeeld Engelstalige versie

Conjunctuurbeeld Nederland

De Nederlandse economie heeft het afgelopen jaar afgesloten met een groei van 1,7% op jaarbasis. Het groeitempo zal de komende kwartalen naar verwachting iets teruglopen, waardoor de BBP-groei dit jaar op 1,5% zal uitkomen.


The history of financial crises (Engelstalig)

The world is littered with financial crises, yet we seem surprised every time they occur. Against this backdrop, we take a closer look at the financial crises since 1800 to see whether we can draw some lessons for the future.


What if AAAmerica gets downgraded? (Engelstalig)

Long-standing concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal imbalances have finally led to the first ‘negative outlook’ for the AAA-rating of US sovereign debt by S&P.


The Rabo Sovereign Vulnerability Index (Engelstalig)

After the dismal failures of the financial markets to correctly price sovereign risk before the crisis, one must be aware that they can still over-or underprice sovereign risk in some countries.


Cameroon (Country Report) (Engelstalig)

Cameroon performs well on almost all macroeconomic indicators: inflation is low, the fiscal and current accounts are almost in balance and debt levels are sustainable. Nonetheless, GDP growth is low at 2.8% (2010).


Serbia (Country Report) (Engelstalig)

Serbia’s economy is still weak as it posts twin deficits. The balance of payments position is weak as the continuously large current account deficits require debt financing. Even so, Serbia’s external position has improved since the nadir during the global financial crisis in 2008.


Kazakhstan (Country Report) (Engelstalig)

Kazakhstan’s economy is recovering steadily and posted 7% growth in 2010. The main problems in the banking sector have been dealt with, but the sector remains a major weakness nonetheless.


Azerbaijan (Country Report) (Engelstalig)

Azerbaijan has been affected much less by the global financial crisis than some other CIS countries, as it entered the crisis without a large credit bubble or high private external indebtedness.


New Zealand (Country Report) (Engelstalig)

New Zealand prior to the crisis seems to have developed a social convention where the government does the saving, leaving spending to households and firms (making New Zealand the exact opposite of Japan in this regard).