RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

India: Economic growth set to plunge as uncertainty rises (Engelstalig)

We have revised our economic projections for India downwards and expect the economy to contract by 2.9% in fiscal 2020/21. The economic stimulus package of 20 lakh crore is expected to prop up growth this fiscal year by 1.8ppts, but more unconventional policy measures (such as debt monetization) seem necessary.

Special

India: Economic Outlook 2020 (Engelstalig)

We forecast economic growth in India of 5.1% for fiscal year 2019/20 and 5.7% for 2020/21. Although we expect the economy to have bottomed out, ongoing structural issues are expected to weigh on India’s medium- and longer-term growth potential.

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy (Engelstalig)

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap (Engelstalig)

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Special

An assessment of the Indian rupee crisis (Engelstalig)

The Indian rupee (INR) has been the worst performing currency in Asia, losing more than 12%. Given the outcome of our EM Vulnerability Heatmap, models and expected additional policy interventions, we expect strengthening of the Indian rupee in the short term.

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight (Engelstalig)

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Special

India: getting inside the head of the RBI (Engelstalig)

We have developed a two-equation model to forecast India’s interest rate and inflation. Going forward, we expect that both variables will follow an upward trajectory. In our lower bound forecasts, we are even more hawkish than the repo forecasts from a Bloomberg survey among 46 economists.