RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Themabericht

Weathering the Indian rupee storm (Engelstalig)

The Indian rupee is the worst performing currency in Asia, losing 12% this year. We use two approaches (an EM Vulnerability Heatmap and an integrated model) to delve deeper into the fundamentals of the INR and assess whether the current weak levels are justified.

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap (Engelstalig)

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Special

An assessment of the Indian rupee crisis (Engelstalig)

The Indian rupee (INR) has been the worst performing currency in Asia, losing more than 12%. Given the outcome of our EM Vulnerability Heatmap, models and expected additional policy interventions, we expect strengthening of the Indian rupee in the short term.

Themabericht

The downsides of India’s oil addiction (Engelstalig)

The oil market is going through a rocky period. Large net oil importing emerging markets, such as India, are vulnerable, but exactly how vulnerable? In this column we show the economic impact in case of a mild and severe oil price shock.

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight (Engelstalig)

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Special

India: getting inside the head of the RBI (Engelstalig)

We have developed a two-equation model to forecast India’s interest rate and inflation. Going forward, we expect that both variables will follow an upward trajectory. In our lower bound forecasts, we are even more hawkish than the repo forecasts from a Bloomberg survey among 46 economists.