RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

Economic implications of the coronavirus (Engelstalig)

The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None (Engelstalig)

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

Special

Eurozone recessions, a historical perspective (Engelstalig)

Against a backdrop of increasing talk about a new Eurozone recession, we first take a deep dive into the historical data. We show that since the 1960s there have basically been two types of recessions: common Eurozone recessions and idiosyncratic (country specific) recessions.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

Rente en valuta: ongefundeerd optimisme

Het optimisme in de financiële markten is in onze ogen niet houdbaar en wij zien weer lagere rentes in de loop van 2020. Terwijl het Britse pond het meeste positieve nieuws wel heeft verwerkt, blijft de dollar voorlopig sterk. Fed renteverlagingen zullen uiteindelijk wel op de dollar gaan wegen.

Special

Very dangerous European cars part II (Engelstalig)

Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.

Special

US-China trade war: no turning back (Engelstalig)

The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.

Special

The US-China trade war in the rerun (Engelstalig)

The US has raised import tariffs from 10% to 25% on 200bn worth of Chinese goods shipped to US shores and China has vowed to retaliate. In this report, we assess the economic impact of these measures, as well as a scenario where the US-China trade war fully escalates.