Special
Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.
Special
In this new Phase One Monitor (POM) we track progress toward the target values set for US exports to China in 2020 and 2021 which were agreed upon in the Phase One trade deal. Based on data up to and including April, China currently is not following a trajectory which puts it on track to reach the targets in the deal.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
Special
We have changed our base case and now expect a recession in virtually all G10 countries, which will lead world economic growth to slow to 0.7% for 2020, the weakest this figure has been since the great financial crisis of 2008/2009.
Special
The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.
Special
The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.
Special Engelstalige versie
Uit onze analyse blijkt dat de Verenigde Staten naar verhouding meer last heeft van verstoringen in de bilaterale waardeketen dan China. Daarnaast hebben derde landen zoals Nederland indirect ook last van een verdere escalatie doordat zij actief zijn in dezelfde waardeketen.
Special
The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.
Special
The US has raised import tariffs from 10% to 25% on 200bn worth of Chinese goods shipped to US shores and China has vowed to retaliate. In this report, we assess the economic impact of these measures, as well as a scenario where the US-China trade war fully escalates.
Special Engelstalige versie
Onze resultaten tonen aan dat China onevenredig de dupe zou worden van een bilaterale handelsoorlog met de Verenigde Staten. Hoewel de meeste verliezen terechtkomen in deze landen, heeft de bilaterale handelsoorlog ook negatieve gevolgen voor derden, zoals de eurozone en Nederland.
Special
This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.
Special
De valuta van de opkomende markten hebben sinds april stevige verliezen genoteerd. Deze Special presenteert een nieuwe heatmap waarmee de kwetsbaarheid van de opkomende markten in kaart wordt gebracht.
Special
We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.
