RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Themabericht

Hoe gevoelig is de Nederlandse economie voor ontwikkelingen in Hongkong?

De directe handels- en investeringsrelatie van Nederland met Hongkong lijkt op het eerste gezicht beperkt. Maar er zijn ook diverse indirecte effecten die we in ogenschouw moeten nemen, zoals de rol die verdere escalatie kan spelen bij het brede conflict tussen de Verenigde Staten en China.

Themabericht

Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning (Engelstalig)

The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.

Themabericht

Recession and CLOs (Engelstalig)

While CLOs performed well during the last crisis, and there is less dependence on short-term wholesale funding, the rise of loans with reduced investor protection and illiquidity are risk factors that could turn a run-of-the-mill recession into something worse.

Themabericht

Make American productivity great again!

De groei van de Amerikaanse economie staat onder druk door dalende budgetten voor Research & Development en onderwijs. Als de overheid hier meer aan uitgeeft in plaats van aan de huidige belastingverlaging, kan de Amerikaanse structurele groei tot 2030 14 procentpunt hoger uitkomen.

Themabericht

Is India slipping back into bad habits? (Engelstalig)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.

Themabericht

Recession United States on the radar (Engelstalig)

Our early warning system based on the yield curve continues to point at a recession in the United States in the second half of 2020. However, our ‘recession radar’ suggests that the US economy is not in recession yet and is not likely to be in the near term.

Themabericht

Very dangerous cars (Engelstalig)

Trump received the report on the investigation into whether automotive imports are a threat to the US national security. The conclusions have not been made public. Trump now has 90 days to decide – depending on the conclusion of the report – whether or not to impose tariff.