RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Landenrapport

Country Report Ethiopia (Engelstalig)

Ethiopia continues to record robust growth. However, the state-led development model is con-straining the private sector and has resulted, from time to time, in macroeconomic imbalances, and therefore seems unsustainable in the long term.

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Country Report Nigeria (Engelstalig)

After a rebasing exercise, Nigeria became the largest economy of Africa. However, this does not reduce Nigeria’s large structural issues, and instability and violence could worsen ahead of elections in 2015.

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Country Report Egypt (Engelstalig)

A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.

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Country Report China (Engelstalig)

China’s housing market has been weakening recently, but exports seem to do rather well. The latest PMIs suggest the country should be able to avoid a hard landing.

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Country Report Croatia (Engelstalig)

Croatia’s economy is heading for its sixth year of recession, as ongoing deleveraging efforts and structural weaknesses depress growth. Amid worrying public debt dynamics, Croatia’s government increased its fiscal consolidation efforts and adopted some structural reforms.

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Country Report Mexico (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in 14Q1 was slightly disappointing, but Mexico’s economic outlook is improving considerably, as almost all intended structural reforms are approved. The most important one –energy- is likely to be approved soon.

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Country Report Russia (Engelstalig)

Due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia’s economy deteriorated; growth fell and the Ruble depreciated. In recent weeks the situation has improved, but risks remain to the downsize, as we may not exclude additional sanctions from the west.

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Country Report Aruba (Engelstalig)

Although Aruba’s economy grew again in 2013 its economic outlook remains bleak. Government finances in particular are a reason for concern, as Aruba’s deficit is still large, its debt level high and control over public finances weak.

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Country Report Indonesia (Engelstalig)

The policy focus in Indonesia is on macroeconomic stabilisation, while protectionist policies have been implemented in the past months. Growth is expected to slow to 5.4% in 2014. No major new structural reforms are expected from the next government.

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Country Report Czech Republic (Engelstalig)

The Czech Republic’s economy is heading for a relatively broad-based recovery, after it emerged from an 18-month recession last year. On the political front, early elections following a major corruption scandal yielded a less eurosceptical cabinet.

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Country Report Philippines (Engelstalig)

The institutional quality of the Philippines has improved in recent years, while growth has been relatively high. On the political front, the peace agreement with the MILF bodes well for stability, but relations with China remain poor.

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Country Report Serbia (Engelstalig)

Serbia’s newly-elected government promised to embark on a comprehensive structural reform programme as the country’s fiscal situation has deteriorated markedly, but the prospect of faltering economic growth could confront it with considerable social challenges.

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Country Report Thailand (Engelstalig)

After the May 22 coup, Thailand is under military control. The risk of large and violent protests remains present. The democracy is unlikely to be restored in the short-term. Whilst in control, the military aims to restore economic growth.

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Country Report Israel (Engelstalig)

The Israeli economy is likely to continue to grow at a moderate pace, while the rising mortgage debt and housing prices pose risks. Meanwhile, the latest round of peace talks with the Palestinians collapsed in late April.