RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Themabericht

The race to predict India’s economic data (Engelstalig)

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

Themabericht

Is India slipping back into bad habits? (Engelstalig)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.

Themabericht

India: 2019 Economic Outlook (Engelstalig)

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Themabericht

Weathering the Indian rupee storm (Engelstalig)

The Indian rupee is the worst performing currency in Asia, losing 12% this year. We use two approaches (an EM Vulnerability Heatmap and an integrated model) to delve deeper into the fundamentals of the INR and assess whether the current weak levels are justified.

Themabericht

The downsides of India’s oil addiction (Engelstalig)

The oil market is going through a rocky period. Large net oil importing emerging markets, such as India, are vulnerable, but exactly how vulnerable? In this column we show the economic impact in case of a mild and severe oil price shock.