RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Nederlandse woningmarkt: verkopen nemen toe, prijzen stabiliseren

Het CBS publiceerde vandaag in samenwerking met het Kadaster het aantal transacties en de prijzen van bestaande koopwoningen in Nederland in mei 2014. De ontwikkeling van het aantal verkochte woningen was opnieuw positief en de prijs stabiliseert.

Economisch commentaar

Het verschil in Nederlandse inflatiecijfers verklaard

Het Nederlandse inflatiecijfer gebaseerd op de CPI was de afgelopen maanden flink hoger dan het inflatiecijfer gebaseerd op de HICP. Dit economisch commentaar verklaart de verschillen tussen beide maatstaven.

Landenrapport

Country Report Ethiopia (Engelstalig)

Ethiopia continues to record robust growth. However, the state-led development model is con-straining the private sector and has resulted, from time to time, in macroeconomic imbalances, and therefore seems unsustainable in the long term.

Economisch commentaar

Nieuw-Zeeland: wederom verhoging van beleidsrente

De centrale bank van Nieuw-Zeeland (RBNZ) heeft op 12 juni de beleidsrente voor de derde keer in vier maanden tijd met 25 basispunten verhoogd naar 3,25%. Het is niet te verwachten dat andere geavanceerde landen snel zullen volgen.

Landenrapport

Country Report Nigeria (Engelstalig)

After a rebasing exercise, Nigeria became the largest economy of Africa. However, this does not reduce Nigeria’s large structural issues, and instability and violence could worsen ahead of elections in 2015.

Landenrapport

Country Report Egypt (Engelstalig)

A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.

Landenrapport

Country Report China (Engelstalig)

China’s housing market has been weakening recently, but exports seem to do rather well. The latest PMIs suggest the country should be able to avoid a hard landing.

Landenrapport

Country Report Croatia (Engelstalig)

Croatia’s economy is heading for its sixth year of recession, as ongoing deleveraging efforts and structural weaknesses depress growth. Amid worrying public debt dynamics, Croatia’s government increased its fiscal consolidation efforts and adopted some structural reforms.

Landenrapport

Country Report Mexico (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in 14Q1 was slightly disappointing, but Mexico’s economic outlook is improving considerably, as almost all intended structural reforms are approved. The most important one –energy- is likely to be approved soon.

Landenrapport

Country Report Russia (Engelstalig)

Due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia’s economy deteriorated; growth fell and the Ruble depreciated. In recent weeks the situation has improved, but risks remain to the downsize, as we may not exclude additional sanctions from the west.

Landenrapport

Country Report Aruba (Engelstalig)

Although Aruba’s economy grew again in 2013 its economic outlook remains bleak. Government finances in particular are a reason for concern, as Aruba’s deficit is still large, its debt level high and control over public finances weak.

Landenrapport

Country Report Indonesia (Engelstalig)

The policy focus in Indonesia is on macroeconomic stabilisation, while protectionist policies have been implemented in the past months. Growth is expected to slow to 5.4% in 2014. No major new structural reforms are expected from the next government.

Landenrapport

Country Report Czech Republic (Engelstalig)

The Czech Republic’s economy is heading for a relatively broad-based recovery, after it emerged from an 18-month recession last year. On the political front, early elections following a major corruption scandal yielded a less eurosceptical cabinet.

Landenrapport

Country Report Philippines (Engelstalig)

The institutional quality of the Philippines has improved in recent years, while growth has been relatively high. On the political front, the peace agreement with the MILF bodes well for stability, but relations with China remain poor.

Landenrapport

Country Report Serbia (Engelstalig)

Serbia’s newly-elected government promised to embark on a comprehensive structural reform programme as the country’s fiscal situation has deteriorated markedly, but the prospect of faltering economic growth could confront it with considerable social challenges.