RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Landenrapport

Russia: bottoming out? (Engelstalig)

Russia’s economy might be finally bottoming out after recording a 5% yoy contraction in 2Q15, the sharpest in six years. However the growth outlook remains bleak due to structurally lower oil prices, existing sanctions and lack of structural reforms.

Landenrapport

South Africa: exacerbating structural problems (Engelstalig)

South Africa’s growth outlook is held back by low investor confidence and structural weaknesses in areas such as infrastructure, labour and competition. Neither of these are likely to be addressed in the current financial and political climate.

Landenrapport

Brazil: headwinds intensify (Engelstalig)

Brazil is experiencing the strongest contraction in the last two decades on the back of an unfavourable environment, a frontloaded adjustment of economic policy and prevailing negative sentiment. Increasing political tensions complicate the situation.

Landenrapport

Country Report India (Engelstalig)

Economic growth has been strong recently and is expected to strengthen somewhat in the near future. Although economic policy in India is moving into the right direction, the pace is slow, which eventually might hurt economic growth.

Landenrapport

Country Report Indonesia (Engelstalig)

The Indonesian economy has slowed down due to lower commodity prices and the inability of President Widodo to implement reforms and planned infrastructure investments. Meanwhile, he has resorted to populist policies to boost popular support.

Landenrapport

Country Report Thailand (Engelstalig)

One and a half year after the coup, the military regime is still in power. Elections are again delayed and stability is preserved through repression. In the meantime, the economy is performing disappointingly with tourism being the only bright spot.

Landenrapport

Country Report Lebanon (Engelstalig)

Lebanon’s economy continues to show weak growth in 2014 (3%), being adversely effected by the conflict in Syria. But the banking sector remains healthy and Lebanon still has ample foreign reserves, which mitigates its otherwise high country risk.

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Country Report Jordan (Engelstalig)

Jordan’s economic situation is improving. GDP growth has picked up to 3.1% in 2014, driven by lower oil prices and growth in the tourism sector. The greatest risk is still that the conflicts in Syria and Iraq will lead to negative spill-overs.

Landenrapport

Country Report China (Engelstalig)

Concerns about a Chinese slowdown have increased, but most indicators suggest that the downturn is concentrated in industry and construction. The direct impact of the stock market rout is limited, but it has damaged the credibility of the crucial reform agenda of the government.