RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

The Third Round of French Elections (Engelstalig)

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation (Engelstalig)

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Column

Wrange Brexit-druiven

Het is vijfeneenhalf jaar na het Brexit-referendum, bijna twee jaar nadat het Verenigd Koninkrijk de Europese Unie daadwerkelijk verliet en ruim een jaar sinds de nieuwe handelsrelatie tussen beide een feit is. Als we de balans opmaken, blijkt het beloofde Brexit-dividend weinig waard.

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go' (Engelstalig)

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Themabericht

Delta variant forces Australia into new lockdowns (Engelstalig)

Australia is facing new lockdowns due to the spread of the Delta variant. Nonetheless, we expect the economic impact to be less severe than last year. Inflation reached a high point of 3.8%. However, the central sees this as temporary and the RBA doesn’t expect to hike rates before 2024.

Themabericht

Australia: Policymakers shifting gears (Engelstalig)

The recent Australian federal budget represents a shift in budget strategy away from budget prudence towards higher spending. The combination of loose fiscal and monetary stimulus increases inflation expectations. However, the RBA doesn’t expect a rate hike before 2024 due to spare capacity in the economy.