RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Themabericht

Brexit Update: Deal done? (Engelstalig)

The EU council approved the EU-UK Brexit deal on 25 November. The document sets out the divorce conditions. It also includes an outline of the envisaged future economic partnership in the appendix. The approval of the UK parliament is still pending.

Economisch commentaar

Brexit Update: The finals (Engelstalig)

The United Kingdom and the EU have reached a deal in the Brexit negotiations. Unfortunately the road to an orderly Brexit remains a bumpy one and getting the deal approved by the UK Parliament is the main challenge.

Economisch commentaar

Brexit update: entering overtime (Engelstalig)

The UK brought the Brexit talks with the EU to a stand-still on 14 October. EU’s original deadline for a signed deal has been missed. We now estimate the chances of a ‘hard Brexit’ as almost as high as those of a deal.

Column

Brexit dichter bij een rampscenario

Wij schatten de kansen van een harde Brexit nu als bijna even groot als de kans dat een deal bereikt wordt. Zonder noodmaatregelen kan een harde Brexit ook bedrijven die geen zaken doen met het VK raken.

Conjunctuurbeeld

France’s 2019 budget to reduce size of government (Engelstalig)

French President Macron struggles with low approval ratings and decreasing economic confidence, despite a strong parliamentary mandate for reform and upward economic potential. The 2019 budget proposal reduces the size of government, modest improvements in public finances and stimulus for private demand.

Economisch commentaar

De-dramatising Salzburg (Engelstalig)

The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.