RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek


The Third Round of French Elections (Engelstalig)

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.


Re-appraising Eurozone inflation (Engelstalig)

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.


New Zealand: Two sides of the same coin (Engelstalig)

The economic effect of Omicron will be contained in Q1 before growth accelerates from Q2 onwards. However, higher prices and lower global growth, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, drag on economic growth in the second half of 2022. As such, the recovery is likely to be not as strong as it looks at face value.


Australia: Weighing the Work (Engelstalig)

On the one hand, we expect high labour demand and labour market scarcity to increase the likelihood of wage growth. On the other hand, this upside potential is being eroded by an increased supply of labour from overseas, international competition, and structural shifts. As such, we believe it will take some time before “significant” wage growth will occur.


Australia: Economic update (Engelstalig)

The Australian economy is set to contract in Q3, modestly rebounding in Q4. Inflation risk are likely, as gas and freight prices rise steeply. Australia must balance existing economic ties to China with increasing geostrategic ties to the west.


Hoe werkt geldschepping?

Over geldschepping en de rol van de banken daarin bestaan veel misverstanden. In deze Special trachten we deze misverstanden uit de weg te ruimen. Daarbij gaat het niet alleen om het proces van geldschepping, maar ook over de kredietverlening.


Australia: From frontrunner to laggard (Engelstalig)

The transmission of the delta variant and low vaccination rates in Australia, have turned Australia from a frontrunner into a laggard. We have revised our economic forecast for 2021 downwards, as a result of the economic spillover effects of the current wave of, and projected, infections in Q3 and Q4.


Niets om over naar huis te schrijven

"We hebben geluisterd", was de boodschap van ECB-president Lagarde toen zij aankondigde dat de ECB 'huizenprijzen' mee wil nemen in de meting van het inflatiepeil in de eurozone. Maar gaat de gemiddelde consument daar nou wel zoveel van merken?