RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeeld

India’s economy gets back on track (Engelstalig)

Growth of 20.1% in India in Q2 is misleading, as economic output was disrupted by a second Covid-19 outbreak. Going forward, we expect an economic recovery as restrictions ease and mobility increases, fostering consumption and investments.

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go' (Engelstalig)

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Themabericht

Economy of India recovers from second wave of Covid-19 (Engelstalig)

India’s economy rebounds quickly and economic pain of the second wave will be concentrated in the second quarter. Inflation number were above inflation target of the RBI in May and June but seem to have peaked. We expect the RBI to remain its accommodative stance for some time to come.

Special

Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap (Engelstalig)

Strong economic recovery by advanced economies is leading to increasing inflation expectations. Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies potentially threatens emerging market economic recovery. Our vulnerability Heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of important economic indicators to signal potential vulnerabilities in 18 economies.

Special

Germany: better times ahead? (Engelstalig)

The German economy will recover quickly, driven by foreign- and pent-up demand. Its traditional unease with soaring prices will be tested. The September election is going to be crucial: Germany faces some tough decisions.

Column

Waarom het Chinees vijfjarenplan op een Rubiks kubus lijkt

Het nieuwe Chinese vijfjarenplan heeft veel weg van een Rubiks kubus, waarbij een draai van het ene economisch vlak naar de ene kant leidt tot een ongewenste draai ergens anders. China zal dan ook afwegingen moeten maken tussen haar doelstellingen.

Economisch commentaar

China: Rising tensions (Engelstalig)

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Special

ASEAN update: Recovering from Covid-19 (Engelstalig)

We expect all ASEAN economies to grow this year, although at different speeds. The current high number of new Covid-19 cases underlines that the virus will continue to challenge economic recovery throughout 2021.