RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

Conditionele eurobonds als overgangsregime

Sinds begin 2010 staat de eurozone onder grote druk. Het gevaar van het al of niet gedeeltelijk uiteenvallen van de eurozone is nog niet geweken. Een tijdelijk regime van conditionele eurobonds kan voor langere tijd stabiliteit scheppen en legt de juiste prikkels voor beleidsmakers.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Russia: Slowdown continues, stimulus expected (Engelstalig)

The most recent data shows that economic growth in Russia continues to slow down. There have been talks of a fiscal stimulus package, which is feasible given Russia’s healthy public finances. However, it is not without risks in the long term.

Conjunctuurbeeld

India: Weak recovery after disappointing year (Engelstalig)

In 2012-13, growth in India fell to the lowest rate in a decade. We expect a modest recovery going forward. A favorable monsoon is likely to boost growth somewhat, but the current account deficit constrains the room to apply (further) stimulus.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Brazil: Recovery continues to disappoint (Engelstalig)

Growth in Brazil disappointed once again in 1Q2013. Investment was very strong, but we expect it to become less vigorous in the rest of the year. Meanwhile, private consumption slowed down strongly. We now expect growth of only 2¼% this year.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

United Kingdom: Has the recovery finally arrived? (Engelstalig)

There are some signs that the UK recovery is gathering momentum. But the growth outlook remains very much dependent on the external economic envi-ronment. A re-escalation of the euro crisis can throw a spanner in the works. This is the translation of a part from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

China: Disappointing growth not necessarily bad (Engelstalig)

Contrary to earlier expectations, China’s economic growth slowed slightly. This was not necessarily bad news, as the growth rate remained between 7.5%-8%, whereas significantly stronger or weaker growth would currently both be undesirable. This is the translation from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly -

Column

Mannen met halve plannen

De vooruitzichten voor de ontwikkelingen in de wereldeconomie hangen meer dan ooit af van beleidsmakers. En dat stemt droevig. Verder dan halve plannen zijn politici in de meeste landen niet. Mannen met halve plannen, daar gaat onze hoop naar uit.

Infographic

Infographic Economisch Kwartaalbericht, licht

Bekijk het EKB in één oogopslag. Klik hier voor de infographic met de belangrijkste economische cijfers. Dit is de lichte variant, die makkelijker mobiel te downloaden is.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

Economisch Kwartaalbericht juni 2013

Wereldwijd hebben beleidsmakers de monetaire sluizen de afgelopen maanden verder opengedraaid. Ook qua begrotingsbeleid lijkt er een iets andere wind te gaan waaien.

Special

Conditional Euro T-Bills as a transitional regime (Engelstalig)

Since early 2010, tensions within the Eurozone have risen sharply. What started with a Greek confession that both projections for and past realizations of government debt and deficit statistics were blatantly off the mark, developed into a Euro crisis of systemic proportions.

Landenrapport

Country Report Egypt (Engelstalig)

The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.

Landenrapport

Country Report Nicaragua (Engelstalig)

Nicaragua has a weak political and economic structure, as well as a low standard of living. Economic growth has been quite strong in recent years. Nicaragua’s heavy reliance on support Venezuela is a big vulnerability.

Landenrapport

Country Report Suriname (Engelstalig)

The Surinam economy has grown relatively rapidly recently. The country has a current account surplus and government debt is low at 20% of GDP. Shortcomings are weak external relations, weak institutions and a narrow economic base.

Landenrapport

Country Report Mexico (Engelstalig)

Important sectors of the Mexican economy are characterized by a low level of competition. Positive in this respect is that new President Peña Nieto intends to reform these markets with the help of the opposition.