Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
Wij verwachten dat de wereldeconomie in 2020 en 2021 de laagste groei zal zien sinds de financiële crisis. Dit komt vooral doordat de wereldeconomie tegen haar capaciteitsgrenzen aanloopt en de industriële activiteit en wereldhandel verder vertragen.
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
The Netherlands was again amongst the quickest growing countries of the Eurozone in the third quarter, mainly due to increased consumption. However, slowing world trade and domestic issues with nitrogen and PFAS will drag down future growth.
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
China’s lower economic growth together with smaller and more targeted stimulus compared to previous episodes dampen the global outlook. Together with a potential shift in global policy responses, this likely means a new shift lower in bond yields again soon.
Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.
Kwartaalbericht Woningmarkt Engelstalige versie
Het derde kwartaal van 2019 stond in het teken van hogere verkopen en een lagere groei van de huizenprijzen. Deze afvlakking gaat wel minder snel dan verwacht, onder meer door de gedaalde hypotheekrentes en het hardnekkige woningtekort.
Spain’s elections failed to solve the deadlock in parliament. Scraping a majority will be extremely difficult. The stalemate will not send the economy into crisis, but it prevents the economy and public finances from being prepared for one.
Sunday’s elections in Spain are unlikely to break the deadlock in parliament. The economy will continue to grow relatively fast in the short term, but growth is slowing while unemployment is still high and public finances weak.
Trouble in the German economy has more structural groundings than just the trade war. The aging population will have a significant downward effect. We compute the impact of two investment packages for R&D, education and infrastructure.
In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.