RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Transactiebodem woningmarkt lijkt bereikt

De stijging van het aantal transacties in augustus duidt op een eerste fase van stabilisatie van de woningmarkt. Ook de ontwikkeling van de PBK-index is een positief signaal, maar prijzen kunnen pas aantrekken als de economische situatie verbetert.

Landenrapport

Country Report Oman (Engelstalig)

Small-scale social unrest remains present in Oman and the increase in current government spending is a concern. Succession risks remain, as long as Sultan Said al Said fails to appoint a successor.

Landenrapport

Country Report Curacao (Engelstalig)

Curacao is currently facing difficult times, both politically and economically. While economic growth was again disappointing in 2012, Curacao’s political year was characterized with four different prime-ministers and the killing of a politician.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

Has the world turned upside down? (Engelstalig)

The emerging markets are facing some headwinds. Slower growth in China together with the ‘taper’ talk in the US is weighing on economic activity.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

Finally some tailwinds (Engelstalig)

There are signs that UK’s economic activity is gathering momentum. But the recovery is not on a solid footing yet and, therefore, needs to be nurtured. Should ‘forward guidance’ not succeed to stem the tightening of financial condi-tions, more QE will probably be reconsidered as an option, especially because the government will not opt for a slower pace of fiscal austerity.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

A slightly better outlook (Engelstalig)

The Dutch economy remained in recession in the second quarter of 2013. We expect export growth to pick up in the coming quarters. However, low domestic spending will hold economic recovery back

Economisch commentaar

Lichtpuntjes voor de Nederlandse economie schijnen nog zwak

Hogere economische groei en betere vooruitzichten in belangrijke handelspartners kunnen de Nederlandse economie via het exportkanaal een steun in de rug geven. De recessie duurde in het derde kwartaal echter waarschijnlijk nog voort.

Landenrapport

Country Report India (Engelstalig)

The market anticipation of Fed QE tapering has sent the Indian rupee to record lows. However, India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and a declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate economic reforms.

Landenrapport

Country Report Ghana (Engelstalig)

Ghana sees robust economic growth on the back of the nascent oil sector, but the lack of fiscal discipline raises concerns about future debt sustainability and increasing vulnerabilities.

Landenrapport

Country Report South Korea (Engelstalig)

Supported by government measures, real GDP growth in South Korea has been accelerating. Meanwhile, tensions with North Korea have eased, for now. South Korea’s banking sector remains vulnerable to external liquidity risks and rising household debt.

Landenrapport

Country Report Kenya (Engelstalig)

Peaceful elections in 2013 restored confidence in Kenya’s political stability to some extent and bode well for economic development, while the large twin deficits remain a matter of concern.

Landenrapport

Country Report Turkey (Engelstalig)

Turkey’s large current account deficit and its small stock of foreign reserves make it vulnerable to the effects of tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, there have also been several important political developments.

Landenrapport

Country Report Sri Lanka (Engelstalig)

Although economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed down last year, elevated inflation remains a concern. While both the budget deficit and the current account deficit declined slightly in 2012, both deficits remain large.

Landenrapport

Country Report Mongolia (Engelstalig)

Mongolia’s economy slowed in 2012 on the back of lower demand from China and slowing FDI inflows. The government has implemented policies to support growth. A more cooperative stance towards foreign investors should help to regain their confidence.