RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards? (Engelstalig)

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

Column

Een Britse ‘tragedy of the commons’

Het conceptakkoord voor uittreding uit de EU werd weggestemd in het Britse ‘House of Commons’. De ontwikkelingen in het VK lijken op een klassieke ‘tragedy of the commons’, waarbij handelen vanuit eigenbelang leidt tot lagere collectieve welvaart.

Themabericht

India: 2019 Economic Outlook (Engelstalig)

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Special

The US recession of 2020 (Engelstalig)

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.