RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Landenrapport

Country Report Cyprus (Engelstalig)

Thanks to the bailout program Cyprus will, at least for the near future, remain in the eurozone. Cyprus will face a difficult and uncertain future though.

Landenrapport

Country Report South Africa (Engelstalig)

The largest and most modern economy of Sub Saharan Africa had a troublesome year as the large income disparities burst out into protracted industrial unrest, while domestic bottlenecks and low external demand took its toll on economic development.

Economisch commentaar

China: Growth slows in first quarter (Engelstalig)

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Themabericht

Turkey: export-led growth (Engelstalig)

The past decade saw Turkey move away from the boom-bust cycles of the past. The new export industries are a good step in the right direction, but more is needed. This Special Report takes account of the past, while also considering the road ahead.

Themabericht

Turkey: long term outlook (Engelstalig)

The past decade saw Turkey break with its turbulent past. This final Special Report on Turkey’s long-term economic prospects discusses our expectations for the coming decade in all these areas.

Themabericht

Turkey: political and social situation (Engelstalig)

Located in both Europe and Asia, Turkey is often regarded as the bridge between east and west. This Special Report considers Turkey’s current social and political situation, as well as the challenges ahead.

Themabericht

Turkey: financing growth (Engelstalig)

Turkey’s growth performance over the past decade has been impressive but not without risks. This study looks at mechanisms to improve Turkey’s domestic savings rate, as well as the country’s efforts to guarantee long-term investments from abroad.

Landenrapport

Country Report Bahrain (Engelstalig)

The largest country risks for Bahrain lie in the political and social spheres. We expect the social unrest originated in the Arab spring to continue, but not on the scale seen in 2011. Economic growth is forecast at 3.5-4% in 2013.

Landenrapport

Country Report Slovakia (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in Slovakia decelerated from 3.2% in 2011 to 2.2% in 2012. Strong foreign demand for Slovak cars and foreign direct investment, the latter primarily by foreign car producers, were the main drivers of growth.

Column

Catastrofias, Peerlusconi en Panicos

De kern van het Cypriotische probleem ligt meer bij de overheid dan bij de sterk uitgedijde bankensector. Sinds 2012 zijn Cypriotische banken nagenoeg geheel afhankelijk geworden van steun van de ECB en de Cypriotische centrale bank.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld België

De aanhoudend sombere stemming onder producenten en consumenten voorspelt vooralsnog weinig toename in de economische activiteit. De relatief aanzienlijke begrotingsmaatregelen in 2013 fungeren als een extra tegenwind voor de economische groei.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk

De begroting 2013 kende geen verrassingen. De Bank of England heeft extra ruimte om de economie te stimuleren. Vanwege de private schuldafbouw en snelle budgettaire consolidatie zal dit de economische vooruitzichten niet verbeteren.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Belgium (Engelstalig)

Declining producer and consumer sentiment points to a very weak pace of economic activity going forward. In addition, the relatively large fiscal adjustment in 2013 will act as a strong headwind to economic growth.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld Frankrijk

Het zwakke 12K4 lijkt een vervolg te krijgen in 13K1, waardoor een nieuwe milde recessie waarschijnlijk is. Uitstel van de begrotingsdoelstelling voorkomt verdere negatieve impact op de groei dit jaar, de keerzijde is een grotere inspanning in 2014.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

The news from Emerging Markets is not that bad. South (East) Asia's latest IP data were rather good. Growth in Brazil disappointed in 2012, but a recovery has started. Meanwhile, the policy rate in Mexico and Poland fell to a record low level.