RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Landenrapport

Indonesia: Widodo is turning the tide (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.

Landenrapport

Malaysia: corruption scandal is haunting the prime minister (Engelstalig)

Growth in Malaysia slowed down as a result of lower commodity prices. The involvement of PM Najib in a large corruption scandal is hurting his position and international investors’ confidence. This has resulted in increased external pressure on the economy and the balance of payments.

Themabericht

Asia-Pacific: agricultural perspectives (Engelstalig)

Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.

Themabericht

Asia-Pacific: can Asia’s convergence story continue? (Engelstalig)

Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.

Economisch commentaar

De wereld drijft in olie

Overschot aan olie houdt prijzen laag in 2016. Dat is per saldo een plus voor de wereldeconomie, maar vormt wel een risico voor inflatieverwachtingen. Bovendien verslechteren de economische omstandigheden in olie exporterende landen.

Themabericht

Zin en onzin over Chinese kapitaalvlucht

In tegenstelling tot wat media meldden bieden data over handel met Hong Kong weinig bewijs voor massale kapitaalvlucht. Naast aflossing van buitenlandse schuld, lijkt kapitaalvlucht niettemin een flink deel van de daling van de reserves te kunnen verklaren.