RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek


Eurocrisis: Publieke hulp dekt private vlucht

De eurocrisis is een ver­trouwenscrisis waar private investeerders zich uit de periferie terugtrekken en publieke middelen de gevallen gaten tijdelijk afdekken. De steun is nodig om onwenselijke economische schade in heel Europa te voorkomen.

Economisch commentaar

UK: Osborne loses his cherished AAA (Engelstalig)

Moody’s decision to downgrade the UK’s government bond rating should not come as a surprise to investors. That said, the lower rating is a huge blow for Mr. Osborne since his austerity plan was partly based on maintaining the AAA-rating of the UK.

Economisch commentaar

Duitsland: slecht uiteinde, sterk begin

De Duitse economie is in het vierde kwartaal van 2012 met 0,6% gekrompen door een forse teruggang in de buitenlandse vraag naar Duitse goederen. Stemmingsindicatoren wijzen op een herstel van de economie in 2013.


Country Report India (Engelstalig)

Economic growth is India is slowing to the lower end of the 5-6% range. Decisive government action could give a boost to growth, but with elections scheduled for 2014 there seems little room.


Country Report Poland (Engelstalig)

Being hailed as the only EU country without a recession during the 2008/09 global financial crisis, all eyes are on Poland now that the economy is slowing.


Mind the fiscal speed limit (Engelstalig)

The current debate amongst economists regarding the timing of fiscal consolidation is not yet resolved. In this Special we present evidence that fiscal policy has a larger short-term negative impact on growth than the government currently expects.



Hoewel we nog steeds rijk zijn, lijken Nederlanders pessimistischer dan onze mede-Europeanen. Dat heeft een reden. Veel mensen zijn teleurgesteld over hun eigen financiële positie. Alleen is het de vraag of het wel terecht is.


Country Report Bangladesh (Engelstalig)

Bangladesh has posted strong growth in the face of a deteriorating external environment. In 2012, the economy expanded by 6.3% and is expected to grow by around 6% in 2013. Bangladesh remains one of the poorest countries in the world.


Country Report Paraguay (Engelstalig)

Paraguay’s GDP growth is estimated to increase to around 9.5% in 2013, as conditions have improved markedly recently. Fernando Lugo was impeached last year and interim president Franco will remain in charge until the April 2013 elections.


Country Report South Korea (Engelstalig)

South Korea’s economic growth has slowed to around 2% in 2012. Presidential elections in 2012 passed smoothly, with Park Guen-hye winning the elections. The situation in North Korea has deteriorated as the regime has performed a third nuclear test.


Country Report Tanzania (Engelstalig)

Tanzania grew 6.8% in 2012 and expects 7% growth in the coming years. Gas reserves discovery can boost the economy, but high corruption can cause discontent with Tanzanians and donors. Readily available financing accommodates the large twin deficit.


Country Report Vietnam (Engelstalig)

With improved economic policies the government has been able to stabilize the economy since early 2011. The external liquidity position improved, but remains weak. In case confidence in the economy falters again, improvements could be undone quickly.


Country Report Costa Rica (Engelstalig)

In 2011 and 2012 the Costa Rican economy grew by 4.2 and 4.9%, respectively. The outlook is rather favorable, we expect the economy to grow by around 4% per year in the coming years. Main risk right now is the financial position of the government.


The inflation genie must not leave the bottle (Engelstalig)

There is an on-going debate in the UK regarding the merits of nominal GDP targeting. Of course, ‘out-of-the box’ thinking is welcome but the risk of switching to a new policy framework is high because it can destabilise inflation expectations.

Economisch commentaar

Eurozone’s growth disappoints in 12Q4

The eurozone GDP contracted by 0.6% q-o-q in the final quarter of 2012. Sentiment indicators suggest the economy will fare better in 13Q1, but we do not expect growth to pick up strongly in 2013 amid severe economic headwinds.