Special
Brexit: Living apart together (Engelstalig)
The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.
RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek
78 Publicaties
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
Blik op de wereld: licht aan het einde van de tunnel?
We verwachten dat de wereldeconomie in 2020 met 3,8 procent krimpt en in 2021 met 4,5 procent herstelt. Coronavaccins zullen dit herstel mogelijk maken, hoewel de beschikbaarheid en distributie per land verschillen.
Special
Brexit: Keep Talking (Engelstalig)
The mandates of Brexit negotiators Barnier and Frost don’t ‘click’, no matter how long they keep talking. As the talks go down the wire, political intervention remains necessary to break the deadlock.
Special
Brexit Outlook: Down to the wire (Engelstalig)
The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.
Special
Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension? (Engelstalig)
Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.
Special
Brexit: Outlook 2020 (Engelstalig)
Brexit has finally become a done deal, but the next phase of the negotiations is much broader in scope. The little time available limits the potential of any EU-UK agreement. Indeed, Brexit has been gradually defined in much harder ways.
Themabericht
The great Brexit gamble paid off (Engelstalig)
The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.
Special
The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime? (Engelstalig)
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Special
The Great Brexit Gamble (Engelstalig)
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Themabericht
Brexit Update - Extension rebellion (Engelstalig)
Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.
Economisch commentaar
Brexit Update - Blame games (Engelstalig)
The EU and the UK are treading carefully to avoid any blame when things go wrong, but it remains highly unlikely that a deal will be reached in the next two weeks. This means that there will be yet another showdown in Westminster.
Economisch commentaar
Brexit Update - Hurricane Brexit (Engelstalig)
A lot has happened since we’ve published our previous Brexit Outlook. The clash between the British Government and Parliament was entirely expected, but eventually culminated into an unprecedented series of dramatic events.
Special
Brexit Outlook: Take control! (Engelstalig)
Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.
Conjunctuurbeeld
United Kingdom: Brexit hangover (Engelstalig)
Brexit will get messier under Boris Johnson’s leadership and the British economy is already suffering from the Brexit uncertainty. The economic outlook for 2019 is modest and shadowed by the prospect of a hard Brexit on 31 October.