Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
China’s lower economic growth together with smaller and more targeted stimulus compared to previous episodes dampen the global outlook. Together with a potential shift in global policy responses, this likely means a new shift lower in bond yields again soon.
Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.
Kwartaalbericht Woningmarkt Engelstalige versie
Het derde kwartaal van 2019 stond in het teken van hogere verkopen en een lagere groei van de huizenprijzen. Deze afvlakking gaat wel minder snel dan verwacht, onder meer door de gedaalde hypotheekrentes en het hardnekkige woningtekort.
Spain’s elections failed to solve the deadlock in parliament. Scraping a majority will be extremely difficult. The stalemate will not send the economy into crisis, but it prevents the economy and public finances from being prepared for one.
Sunday’s elections in Spain are unlikely to break the deadlock in parliament. The economy will continue to grow relatively fast in the short term, but growth is slowing while unemployment is still high and public finances weak.
Trouble in the German economy has more structural groundings than just the trade war. The aging population will have a significant downward effect. We compute the impact of two investment packages for R&D, education and infrastructure.
In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.
Conjunctuurbeeld Engelstalige versie
De Nederlandse economische groei vertraagt. De consumptie blijft op peil, maar de aanhoudende krimp in de industriële productie en de groeivertraging in export en import duiden op een lager groeitempo.
The Eurozone economy grew with 0.2% in 19Q3. At first sight maybe little to cheer about, but given the trade tensions and ailing manufacturing sector, worth a minor celebration. Maybe more importantly, for now this is as good as it gets.
Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.
Rabobank economists Hugo Erken and Raphie Hayat talk about what the US-China trade war means for Southeast Asia. Will US companies in China leave? And if so, where will they go? Will Southeast Asian countries emerge as winners from the trade war? Find out in this video update.