Conjunctuurbeeld
The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.
Conjunctuurbeeld
Brazil’s economy grew surprisingly fast in 13Q2. In particular, the strong investment growth realised is highly welcome. However, we expect growth to slow down in the second part of 2013.
Conjunctuurbeeld
Tapering talk has sent the Indian rupee to record lows, but India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate reforms.
Conjunctuurbeeld
Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.
Conjunctuurbeeld
A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.
Conjunctuurbeeld
A better than expected GDP figure for 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels suggest that economic conditions are improving. That said, a quick housing market and labour market recovery is not on the cards yet.
Conjunctuurbeeld
US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.
Conjunctuurbeeld
In 13Q2, the Belgian economy climbed out of recession. The recovery is expected to continue at a gradual pace on the back of stronger external demand. It will probably take a while until the labour market starts to recover.
Conjunctuurbeeld
Second quarter economic growth in Germany was broad-based. Given the current readings of both the producer and consumer confidence, the economy is expected to continue growing in the coming quarters.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht
The emerging markets are facing some headwinds. Slower growth in China together with the ‘taper’ talk in the US is weighing on economic activity.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht
There are signs that UK’s economic activity is gathering momentum. But the recovery is not on a solid footing yet and, therefore, needs to be nurtured. Should ‘forward guidance’ not succeed to stem the tightening of financial condi-tions, more QE will probably be reconsidered as an option, especially because the government will not opt for a slower pace of fiscal austerity.
