RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeelden eurozone

De groeicijfers van het tweede kwartaal van 2013 laten een gemengd beeld zien. Zo presteerde de Duitse economie goed, maar bleven Spanje en Italië in recessie. Onze Conjunctuurbeelden in één overzicht.

Conjunctuurbeeld

India: Battered but not beaten (Engelstalig)

Tapering talk has sent the Indian rupee to record lows, but India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate reforms.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Russia (Engelstalig)

Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.

Conjunctuurbeeld

France: A jobless recovery (Engelstalig)

A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Spain: Adios recesión? (Engelstalig)

A better than expected GDP figure for 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels suggest that economic conditions are improving. That said, a quick housing market and labour market recovery is not on the cards yet.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Germany: Still going strong (Engelstalig)

Second quarter economic growth in Germany was broad-based. Given the current readings of both the producer and consumer confidence, the economy is expected to continue growing in the coming quarters.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

Has the world turned upside down? (Engelstalig)

The emerging markets are facing some headwinds. Slower growth in China together with the ‘taper’ talk in the US is weighing on economic activity.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

Finally some tailwinds (Engelstalig)

There are signs that UK’s economic activity is gathering momentum. But the recovery is not on a solid footing yet and, therefore, needs to be nurtured. Should ‘forward guidance’ not succeed to stem the tightening of financial condi-tions, more QE will probably be reconsidered as an option, especially because the government will not opt for a slower pace of fiscal austerity.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

A slightly better outlook (Engelstalig)

The Dutch economy remained in recession in the second quarter of 2013. We expect export growth to pick up in the coming quarters. However, low domestic spending will hold economic recovery back