RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

Eurozone: geopolitiek bedreigt pril herstel

Gedragen door een licht stijgende binnenlandse vraag verwachten wij een voortzetting van het economisch herstel in de eurozone. Tegelijkertijd neemt ook de buitenlandse vraag langzaam toe. De geopolitieke spanningen vormen echter een risico.


Country Report Mauritius (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in Mauritius continues to be suppressed by subdued external demand from Europe. Meanwhile, flash floods in the beginning of 2013 and an increased wage bill have driven up government expenditure.


Country Report Sri Lanka (Engelstalig)

On the economic front, Sri Lanka is performing relatively well. Growth is holding up strongly and the balance of payments is improving. The increasingly authoritarian style of the Rajapaksa government is, however, less positive news.


Country Report South Korea (Engelstalig)

The South Korean government is trying to raise growth both in the short- and long-term. Meanwhile, the external vulnerability of the country and of its banking sector in particular, has decreased. Relations with North Korea remain uncertain and difficult.


Country Report Turkey (Engelstalig)

While Turkey’s economic growth started to slow in the second quarter, the central bank faces pressure to reverse its major January interest rate hike ahead of the 2015 parliamentary elections. As expected, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became Turkey’s first directly-elected president.


Country Report India (Engelstalig)

The recent massive election win of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and expectations of business friendly reforms are boosting sentiment and growth. However, India will not change overnight.


France: recovery remains weak (Engelstalig)

Recent data show that the French economy did not grow in the first half of 2014 and the outlook for the second half is muted. Furthermore, the labour market remains weak and we expect unemployment to decrease at the end of 2015.


Germany: Europe’s growth engine faltered (Engelstalig)

In the second quarter, the German economy shrank by 0.2% q-o-q. Without the negative impact of the warm winter, GDP growth would probably have been positive. Hard data also shows that the German economy had a strong start of the current quarter.


Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina (Engelstalig)

Bosnia-Herzegovina faces major socioeconomic challenges in the aftermath of devastating floods and months of violent protests. The upcoming general elections in October are unlikely to improve the situation, but increased IMF support should alleviate possible financial problems.


Country Report Kenya (Engelstalig)

2013 was a crucial year for Kenya, as domestic political stability improved on the back of peaceful elections, which contributed to better economic prospects. Unfortunately, these improvements were offset by an increasing terrorist security threat.


Country Report Kuwait (Engelstalig)

Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed in 2013 and prospects for 2014 are stable. The political focus seems to be shifting towards the crown prince succession, which might stall progress booked on economic reforms in the past year.


Country Report Poland (Engelstalig)

Poland’s economy continued to rebound strongly in the first half of this year, but growth is likely to weaken amid mutual EU and Russian sanctions. As prime minister Tusk heads for Brussels, a new cabinet may be nominated as soon as early September.