Special
We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year. The recovery next year will be modest, held back by weak external demand, social distancing and weak consumer sentiment. Also, ASEAN currencies will face another bout of depreciations.
Special
We outline four scenarios in which the coronavirus outbreak becomes increasingly severe and discuss the implications for China and the world economy.
Video
Rabobank economists Hugo Erken and Raphie Hayat talk about what the US-China trade war means for Southeast Asia. Will US companies in China leave? And if so, where will they go? Will Southeast Asian countries emerge as winners from the trade war? Find out in this video update.
Special
The US-China trade war will probably accelerate a shift of foreign production out of China. Our new ‘Where Will They Go index’ shows that Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and India are likely to benefit from this production relocation.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
De vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie zijn minder rooskleurig geworden en de neerwaartse risico’s zijn verder toegenomen. Ook gaan we er vanuit dat de handelsoorlog tussen de VS en China nog een tijd zal voortslepen.
Themabericht
In this piece, we analyze which region loses most because of the TPP withdrawal by Trump. The US withdrawal has given China, which was excluded from TPP, opportunities to fill a void and to further expand its influence in Asia.
Themabericht
A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.
Themabericht
Strong economic growth has diminished poverty in the region and will swell the ranks of the middle class. But corruption levels are high, China’s influence in the region is increasing and the dispute surrounding the South China Sea may generate stability risks.
Themabericht
Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.
Themabericht
Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.
Landenrapport
Vietnam’s economy expanded by almost 7% last year, but worrying public debt dynamics could put future growth at risk. Ongoing commitment to structural reforms by its new leadership is needed.
Themabericht Engelstalige versie
TTIP en TPP zijn twee grote handelsverdragen die een impuls kunnen geven aan handel en economische groei in de EU, de VS en een twaalftal landen grenzend aan de Stille Oceaan.
Landenrapport
According to official data economic growth in Vietnam has strengthened over the course of 2014, without any signs of renewed overheating. However, problems in the banking sector remain sizeable, which limits credit growth.