Economisch commentaar
Despite reversing the downward trend in September and October, China is still miles behind the target. There is a clear divergence on the progress towards targets for agricultural and energy imports, and manufacturing and services imports.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
We verwachten dat de wereldeconomie in 2020 met 3,8 procent krimpt en in 2021 met 4,5 procent herstelt. Coronavaccins zullen dit herstel mogelijk maken, hoewel de beschikbaarheid en distributie per land verschillen.
Special
While both Trump and Biden want to boost economic growth and reduce unemployment, their approaches are radically different. In this report, we try to assess the impact of their policy plans on a range of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, real income, public debt and trade.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
De wereldeconomie lijkt haar dieptepunt te hebben bereikt en veel landen beginnen weer te herstellen. Dit herstel wordt echter verstoord door onzekerheden die samenhangen met (i) de tweede en derde coronagolf, (ii) op de loer liggende negatieve effecten op arbeidsmarkt en productiviteit en (iii) oplopende geopolitieke spanningen.
Special
In this new Phase One Monitor (POM) we track progress toward the target values set for US exports to China in 2020 and 2021 which were agreed upon in the Phase One trade deal. Based on data up to and including April, China currently is not following a trajectory which puts it on track to reach the targets in the deal.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
Een scherpe recessie van de wereldeconomie zal worden gevolgd door een relatief beperkt herstel, vanwege langdurige 'social distancing'. De politieke spanningen tussen de VS en China zijn weer opgelaaid, waardoor naar verwachting dit jaar de ‘Phase-1 deal’ zal sneuvelen.
Themabericht
The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.
Special
While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
Special
The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.
Special
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Themabericht
In this report we assess the potential impact of US tariffs on European Union export goods worth USD 7.5bn. The use of a standard GTAP trade model enables us to analyse the economic impact across sectors and countries.