RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Themabericht

The race to predict India’s economic data (Engelstalig)

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

Themabericht

Is India slipping back into bad habits? (Engelstalig)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy (Engelstalig)

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.