RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Themabericht

Australia: Policymakers shifting gears (Engelstalig)

The recent Australian federal budget represents a shift in budget strategy away from budget prudence towards higher spending. The combination of loose fiscal and monetary stimulus increases inflation expectations. However, the RBA doesn’t expect a rate hike before 2024 due to spare capacity in the economy.

Themabericht

United States: The Georgia Bifurcation (Engelstalig)

If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.

Economisch commentaar

Germany: Additional containment measures (Engelstalig)

Germany will implement additional containment measures to prevent a further rise of infections from 16 December to 20 January. Non-essential shops, schools and barbers will have to close. Closing of non-essential shops could cost as much as EUR 3.5bn TVA in December and January.

Economisch commentaar

Japan: Crawling out of a recession (Engelstalig)

The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.

Themabericht

United States: Biden's challenges (Engelstalig)

Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, the fiscal policy plans of the Democrats are likely to be stopped by the Republicans in the Senate.