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Spanish inflation is becoming ever more broad-based and rapidly eating into households’ purchasing power. This will dent consumer spending once the reopening boost fades. GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters and turn negative towards year-end.
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High inflation keeps a grip on the Dutch economy. Economic growth is leveling off, but we do not expect a recession. The war in Ukraine is the largest source of uncertainty.
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We were moderately positive about 2022, despite growing concerns about the high inflation prints. But that was all before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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In deze maandelijkse inflatiemonitor duiden we de cijfers en geven we onze verwachting over de toekomstige ontwikkeling van de prijzen.
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The new lockdown measures in the Netherlands will mostly hit consumer spending. But consumer confidence was already in decline before these measures were announced.
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De nieuwe winter lockdown raakt vooral de consumptie. Al daalde het vertrouwen van consumenten al voordat de maatregelen werden aangekondigd, waarschijnlijk door de hoge inflatie.
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We verwachten dat de groeicijfers zullen veranderen naar meer 'normale' metingen ondanks tegenwind van beperkingen aan de aanbodzijde, zoals tekorten aan arbeidskrachten en verstoringen van de toeleveringsketen.
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Looking ahead, we expect growth figures will move toward more ‘normal’ readings. The economy is facing headwinds, mainly from supply-side constraints, such as labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and low availability of (raw) inputs.
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Most Dutch sectors had a good second quarter. The outlook is also favorable but there are concerns about shortages of materials and labor.
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The Dutch economy is recovering stronger than previously expected. And even though the government paved the way for economic recovery by support packages, the on Budget Day presented plans lack strategy and vision on housing shortages and climate change.
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Growth of 20.1% in India in Q2 is misleading, as economic output was disrupted by a second Covid-19 outbreak. Going forward, we expect an economic recovery as restrictions ease and mobility increases, fostering consumption and investments.
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De Nederlandse economie herstelt sterker dan eerder voorzien. Maar sterk herstel zorgt ook voor personeels- en materiaalkrapte met inflatierisico’s als gevolg. Uitdagingen voor de woningmarkt en het klimaat behoeven een duidelijke visie en beleid waarvoor alleen een nieuw kabinet kan zorgen.
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The reopening of the economy has spurred economic activity in the services sector. In Q2 GDP grew with 2.8%. The recovery is set to continue with again strong albeit slowing growth rates in the coming quarters. GDP will reach its pre-crisis level end- 2022.
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The transmission of the delta variant and low vaccination rates in Australia, have turned Australia from a frontrunner into a laggard. We have revised our economic forecast for 2021 downwards, as a result of the economic spillover effects of the current wave of, and projected, infections in Q3 and Q4.
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Household consumption and exports have further increased. Additionally we expect the factors causing upward inflation to be temporary.
