RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

UK's GDP was boosted by temporary factors in 12Q3. Output is expected to contract in 12Q4. The improvement in the labour market is slowing down. Inflation is expected to fall less rapidly, which will be an extra headwind for households in 2013.

Special

Outlook 2013: United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

The UK recovery remains unimpressive due to harsh austerity measures in a weak macroeconomic environment. We maintain the view that the pace of fiscal adjustment must be slowed down so that recovery gets a chance.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

UK GDP was revised further upwards in 12Q2. A number of indicators are pointing to a stronger recovery. That said, it makes sense to wait for the autumn data to draw a more definitive judgement on the underlying strength of the economy.

Themabericht

Retail and investment banking (Engelstalig)

In this study we analyse the feasibility of Dutch implementation of the British (Vickers) and American (Volcker) proposals for separating retail and investment banking or a ban on proprietary trading, respectively.

Economisch commentaar

United Kingdom: Opening the monetary spigots (Engelstalig)

The UK monetary authorities have come up with new credit easing and quantitative easing measures to jump-start the ailing economy. We continue to remain unconvinced that these measures will materially alter the economic outlook.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht

UK: Recession 'made in Downing Street' (Engelstalig)

UK's economy has been going sideways since mid-2010 owing to harsh fiscal austerity measures. The release of 12Q1 GDP figure showed that the country entered a technical recession. Going forward, economic recovery is likely to remain tepid.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

GDP contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1. This means a technical recession is now a reality. Going forward, output will bounce around over the next few quarters due to the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics.

Economisch commentaar

UK: Expansionary fiscal austerity is a myth (Engelstalig)

The recent GDP release suggests that the UK has also joined the recessionary club. However, reliable leading indicators point to a high chance of output being eventually revised upwards.

Economisch commentaar

UK Budget: another missed opportunity (Engelstalig)

The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

The UK GDP contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in 11Q4. On a positive note, household spending finally grew after 4 quarters of contraction. Going forward, falling inflation may result in stronger consumer spending.

Economisch commentaar

The Bank of England unleashes QE2.1 (Engelstalig)

The Bank of England extended QE2, in line with our expectation. This may mark the end of the Bank’s easing cycle unless the economy weakens substantially going forward.

Conjunctuurbeeld Engelstalige versie

Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk

Het jaar is goed begonnen met een stroom van positief nieuws. De voorlopende indicatoren van december waren sterker dan verwacht, wat kan betekenen dat het momentum van de economie begin 2012 verbeterd is.