RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar Engelstalige versie

COVID-19 Economisch Dashboard - internationaal

Er zit vertraging tussen de gevolgen van de coronacrisis voor de economie en de publicatie van economische data. Daarom werpen we een blik op economische indicatoren die eerder beschikbaar komen. Data over files, internationale vluchten, en restaurantboekingen zijn tijdiger beschikbaar en kunnen ons eerder inzicht geven over de economische effecten van de coronacrisis.

Special

Asia: Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap (Engelstalig)

Developing economies are more vulnerable to new virus strains due to lower vaccination coverage, slower pace of vaccination and the nature of their vaccines. Global economic recovery and rising interest rates by major central banks increase pressure on domestic policymakers and country balance sheets.

Conjunctuurbeeld

India’s economy gets back on track (Engelstalig)

Growth of 20.1% in India in Q2 is misleading, as economic output was disrupted by a second Covid-19 outbreak. Going forward, we expect an economic recovery as restrictions ease and mobility increases, fostering consumption and investments.

Themabericht

Economy of India recovers from second wave of Covid-19 (Engelstalig)

India’s economy rebounds quickly and economic pain of the second wave will be concentrated in the second quarter. Inflation number were above inflation target of the RBI in May and June but seem to have peaked. We expect the RBI to remain its accommodative stance for some time to come.

Special

Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap (Engelstalig)

Strong economic recovery by advanced economies is leading to increasing inflation expectations. Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies potentially threatens emerging market economic recovery. Our vulnerability Heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of important economic indicators to signal potential vulnerabilities in 18 economies.

Special

Second wave of Covid-19 impacts economic recovery in India (Engelstalig)

The number of new infections in India will bottom out in May. Economic pain will come through decreased private consumption after mobility levels dropped. RBI continues its accommodative policy but relatively high debt levels limit the government’s flexibility to support the economy.

Economisch commentaar

China: Rising tensions (Engelstalig)

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Themabericht

India: Second wave and vacci”notion” (Engelstalig)

India showed 0.4% GDP growth in Q3 of FY21. Unfortunately a second wave of Covid cases is on the rise, which might hamper growth in the next months. Although vaccine implementation started mid-January, the pace of vaccination must accelerate if India is to reap economic benefits in 2021. Fortunately, availability of vaccines is not a constraint.

Themabericht

India: The two faces of FY22 budget (Engelstalig)

We expect a fiscal Q3 GDP figure of -1.8% (y/y) on 26 of February. In general, the outlook for India is improving as the economy picks up and the prospect of additional fiscal support as presented in the FY22 budget. At the same time the policies of the RBI and the government do entail a dose of future risk.