Special
We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year. The recovery next year will be modest, held back by weak external demand, social distancing and weak consumer sentiment. Also, ASEAN currencies will face another bout of depreciations.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
Themabericht
De handelsoorlog zal waarschijnlijk zorgen voor een versnelde verplaatsing van productie uit China. Onze nieuwe ‘Where Will They Go’ index laat zien Thailand, Maleisië, Vietnam, Taiwan en India waarschijnlijk zullen profiteren van deze verplaatsing.
Special
The US-China trade war will probably accelerate a shift of foreign production out of China. Our new ‘Where Will They Go index’ shows that Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and India are likely to benefit from this production relocation.
Special
We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.
Landenrapport
Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.
Themabericht
A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.
Themabericht
Strong economic growth has diminished poverty in the region and will swell the ranks of the middle class. But corruption levels are high, China’s influence in the region is increasing and the dispute surrounding the South China Sea may generate stability risks.
Themabericht
Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.
Themabericht
Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
In de opkomende wereld valt de groei tegen door lagere grondstoffenprijzen en de terugval van de Chinese groei. Door hogere groei in de eurozone zal de groei van de ontwikkelde landen iets oplopen, maar onvoldoende om een lichte vertraging van de mondiale groei te voorkomen.
Landenrapport
The Indonesian economy has slowed down due to lower commodity prices and the inability of President Widodo to implement reforms and planned infrastructure investments. Meanwhile, he has resorted to populist policies to boost popular support.
Special
De oprichting van de ASEAN economische gemeenschap (AEC) is een stap voorwaarts in de richting van verdere regionale integratie. De deadline van 31 december 2015 zal echter niet gehaald worden, ook daarna zal er nog een hoop werk moeten worden verzet.
Economisch commentaar
De Indonesische overheid heeft de subsidies op brandstoffen verlaagd. Deze eerste maatregel van de nieuwe president van Indonesië, Joko Widodo, is een goed begin.