Special
We expect all ASEAN economies to grow this year, although at different speeds. The current high number of new Covid-19 cases underlines that the virus will continue to challenge economic recovery throughout 2021.
Conjunctuurbeeld
The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.
Special
Indonesia is being hit relatively hard by COVID-19 infections compared to other Asian Emerging Markets. The lingering effects of the pandemic put a brake on a swift economic recovery. Therefore we expect a contraction of GDP of 2.6% in 2020.
Special
The unequal balance between developed and emerging economies becomes painfully clear in the different government response packages to COVID-19. Emerging markets are constrained in their ability to finance appropriate fiscal packages.
Special
We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year. The recovery next year will be modest, held back by weak external demand, social distancing and weak consumer sentiment. Also, ASEAN currencies will face another bout of depreciations.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
Themabericht
De handelsoorlog zal waarschijnlijk zorgen voor een versnelde verplaatsing van productie uit China. Onze nieuwe ‘Where Will They Go’ index laat zien Thailand, Maleisië, Vietnam, Taiwan en India waarschijnlijk zullen profiteren van deze verplaatsing.
Special
The US-China trade war will probably accelerate a shift of foreign production out of China. Our new ‘Where Will They Go index’ shows that Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and India are likely to benefit from this production relocation.
Special
We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.
Landenrapport
Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.
Themabericht
Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.
Themabericht
Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.
Themabericht
A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.
Themabericht
Strong economic growth has diminished poverty in the region and will swell the ranks of the middle class. But corruption levels are high, China’s influence in the region is increasing and the dispute surrounding the South China Sea may generate stability risks.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
In de opkomende wereld valt de groei tegen door lagere grondstoffenprijzen en de terugval van de Chinese groei. Door hogere groei in de eurozone zal de groei van de ontwikkelde landen iets oplopen, maar onvoldoende om een lichte vertraging van de mondiale groei te voorkomen.