RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension? (Engelstalig)

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis (Engelstalig)

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Economisch commentaar

India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress (Engelstalig)

Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.

Economisch commentaar

Japan: A deep recession (Engelstalig)

We expect Japan to fall in a deep recession this year with the economy shrinking by 5%. This is due to looming lockdowns in, amongst others, Tokyo and Osaka and because Japan’s exports will sink as global demand dries up.

Economisch commentaar

A second blow for the German economy (Engelstalig)

Germany’s economy was stagnating and the coronacrisis deals a second blow. Indicators suggest that German corporates are better equipped to absorb the shock than just before the GCF. Moreover, the government is well equipped to handle the crisis.

Economisch commentaar

India: COVID-19 impact revisited (Engelstalig)

We expect a sharp decline of the Indian economy in the second quarter of 2020 of -5.7% (y-o-y) due to the three-week lockdown and adverse trade effects. For calendar 2020 as a whole, we now expect growth at around 1.3% and for 2021 we expect a sharp rebound of 7.6%.