RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek


Italy: Recession, there we go again (Engelstalig)

In 14Q2, GDP volume contracted, again. Deflation may support consumption going forward, but lower consumer confidence and high unemployment temper expectations. For fixed investment, headwinds outpace tailwinds, so a firm recovery is unlikely.


Spain: GDP and employment growth on the rise (Engelstalig)

GDP growth remains robust, mainly owing to a rise in private consumption. We expect employment growth to pick up, especially in the services sector. The fiscal reform announced in the wake of next year’s election puts the deficit target at risk.


Dutch Budget 2015 (Engelstalig)

With the deficit falling in line with expectations, the Dutch 2015 Budget contained only limited new policy measures. 2015 will be yet another year of austerity, and major reforms in health care and the labour market will be implemented.


Scotland: from troubled marriage to happy single? (Engelstalig)

For the first time an opinion poll showed a small majority in favour of Scottish independence. In this Economic Report, we present a general picture of an independent Scottish economy and the risks and opportunities Scotland will face if the Scots vote ‘yes’ to independence from the UK.


Country Report Oman (Engelstalig)

Economic growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the medium term underpinned by strong domestic demand and economic diversification. However, the increase in current government spending challenges fiscal sustainability.

Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie

Nederland: broos herstel Nederlandse economie

Dit jaar groeit de Nederlandse economie licht. Volgend jaar leveren ook de consumptieve bestedingen van huishoudens een positieve bijdrage en versnelt de groei. Geopolitieke spanningen vormen een neerwaarts risico voor het economische herstel.


Country Report Mauritius (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in Mauritius continues to be suppressed by subdued external demand from Europe. Meanwhile, flash floods in the beginning of 2013 and an increased wage bill have driven up government expenditure.


Country Report Sri Lanka (Engelstalig)

On the economic front, Sri Lanka is performing relatively well. Growth is holding up strongly and the balance of payments is improving. The increasingly authoritarian style of the Rajapaksa government is, however, less positive news.


Country Report South Korea (Engelstalig)

The South Korean government is trying to raise growth both in the short- and long-term. Meanwhile, the external vulnerability of the country and of its banking sector in particular, has decreased. Relations with North Korea remain uncertain and difficult.


Country Report Turkey (Engelstalig)

While Turkey’s economic growth started to slow in the second quarter, the central bank faces pressure to reverse its major January interest rate hike ahead of the 2015 parliamentary elections. As expected, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became Turkey’s first directly-elected president.


Country Report India (Engelstalig)

The recent massive election win of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and expectations of business friendly reforms are boosting sentiment and growth. However, India will not change overnight.