RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None (Engelstalig)

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

Special

US-China trade war: no turning back (Engelstalig)

The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.

Video

Handelsoorlog tussen de VS en China laait opnieuw op - video

Het handelsconflict tussen de VS en China is recent weer opgelaaid. RaboResearch-economen Hugo Erken en Björn Giesbergen bespreken de meest recente ontwikkelingen en economische implicaties. Ook komen de twee meest waarschijnlijke scenario's aan bod.

Special

The US-China trade war in the rerun (Engelstalig)

The US has raised import tariffs from 10% to 25% on 200bn worth of Chinese goods shipped to US shores and China has vowed to retaliate. In this report, we assess the economic impact of these measures, as well as a scenario where the US-China trade war fully escalates.

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war (Engelstalig)

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Special

US-China Trade War: Back to the Future (Engelstalig)

The US had announced USD 50bn of tariffs on Chinese exports and China has responded with a matching USD 50bn of tariffs on US exports. But the US has now raised the ante with a further unspecified USD 200bn of tariffs on Chinese goods - and the threat of a further USD 200bn if China responds again in kind. What is the possible impact and what might happen next?

Special

China moet werk maken van onevenwichtigheden en productiviteitsgroei

China voor grote uitdagingen om de welvaart duurzaam te verhogen. Op korte termijn speelt vermindering van schulden, milieuvervuiling en inkomensongelijkheid een belangrijke rol. Maar ook investeringen in productiviteitsgroei zijn van groot belang om de middeninkomensval te ontlopen.