RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek


Spain: investment is back, consumption is up (Engelstalig)

Spain’s economic recovery has strengthened in the third quarter, mainly due to growth in consumption and investment. This also improves next year’s growth outlook. Meanwhile, the external rebalancing is in full swing and government finances are improving.


Germany: at least, it is no recession (Engelstalig)

German GDP-growth was weak in the third quarter. It was mainly driven by domestic consumption, while gross capital formation attributed negatively. Going forward, we expect this picture to remain unchanged.

Conjunctuurbeeld Engelstalige versie

Hogere groei Nederlandse economie

Volgens de tweede raming van het CBS groeide de Nederlandse economie in het tweede kwartaal met 0,7% (vergeleken met 0,5% in de eerste raming). De groei in het tweede kwartaal is voor een groot deel het gevolg van tijdelijke factoren.


Italy: Recession, there we go again (Engelstalig)

In 14Q2, GDP volume contracted, again. Deflation may support consumption going forward, but lower consumer confidence and high unemployment temper expectations. For fixed investment, headwinds outpace tailwinds, so a firm recovery is unlikely.


Spain: GDP and employment growth on the rise (Engelstalig)

GDP growth remains robust, mainly owing to a rise in private consumption. We expect employment growth to pick up, especially in the services sector. The fiscal reform announced in the wake of next year’s election puts the deficit target at risk.


France: recovery remains weak (Engelstalig)

Recent data show that the French economy did not grow in the first half of 2014 and the outlook for the second half is muted. Furthermore, the labour market remains weak and we expect unemployment to decrease at the end of 2015.