Themabericht
We expect a fiscal Q3 GDP figure of -1.8% (y/y) on 26 of February. In general, the outlook for India is improving as the economy picks up and the prospect of additional fiscal support as presented in the FY22 budget. At the same time the policies of the RBI and the government do entail a dose of future risk.
Economisch commentaar Engelstalige versie
Er zit vertraging tussen de gevolgen van de coronacrisis voor de economie en de publicatie van economische data. Daarom werpen we een blik op economische indicatoren die eerder beschikbaar komen. Data over files, internationale vluchten, en restaurantboekingen zijn tijdiger beschikbaar en kunnen ons eerder inzicht geven over de economische effecten van de coronacrisis.
Special
Momentum for green hydrogen is growing in North-West Europe. Almost every week, a new initiative is announced. The Netherlands has a clear lead over Germany, but the latter is catching-up fast.
Economisch commentaar
The Eurozone economy contracted with 0.7% in the final quarter of last year and with 6.8% in 2020 as a whole. Going forward, the apparent resilience of the economy bodes some comfort, but will not prevent another contraction in the current quarter.
Economisch commentaar
The German economy expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Going forward, there are still some major risks however. Transport prices for goods from China have quadrupled recently and pose a threat to the strong trade performance in Germany.
Themabericht
Spain is in the midst of a heavy third coronavirus wave. The government hopes it can avert a full lockdown, but the economy will suffer anyhow. We think the economy contracted in 20Q4 and pencil in another contraction for the current quarter.
Special
The Italian government survived the confidence votes in parliament, but its mandate has weakened. Policymaking will be somewhat more difficult, while the third COVID wave pushes the economy back into recession.
Special
While we expect Biden’s policies to boost economic growth, we do not expect them to end the vicious cycle of polarization and social unrest that is undermining the country. In foreign and trade policy, Biden is likely to return to a multilateral approach.
Special
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.
Themabericht
We expect Indian GDP to contract by -8.4% (y/y) in fiscal 20/21 and grow by 9.7% (y/y) in fiscal 21/22. The INR is projected to appreciate in tandem with the expected global economic recovery and boosted by optimistic global investor sentiment.
Themabericht
On January 6, Trump supporters stormed Congress. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.
Special
The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.
Themabericht
If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.
Themabericht
On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.
