RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

Modern Monetary Theory

Modern Monetary Theory stelt dat overheden hun uitgaven onbeperkt monetair kunnen financieren. Dit klopt niet. Hoewel het goed is dat MMT meer aandacht besteedt aan begrotingsbeleid en de financiering ervan, schiet MMT als theorie tekort.

Themabericht

The race to predict India’s economic data (Engelstalig)

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

Economisch commentaar

China: Stimulus prevents further slowdown in growth (Engelstalig)

The lower GDP growth in the second quarter is in line with our expectations of a gradual economic slowdown. On the back of more government stimulus, June headed towards a slight recovery on several fronts. The question is not if, but when (trade) tensions with the US will flare up again.

Themabericht

Recession and CLOs (Engelstalig)

While CLOs performed well during the last crisis, and there is less dependence on short-term wholesale funding, the rise of loans with reduced investor protection and illiquidity are risk factors that could turn a run-of-the-mill recession into something worse.