RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek


India (Country update) (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in 2011/12 slowed to 6.5% from 8%+ growth figures in the years before. This year, economic growth is expected to be 6% to 6.5%. The government is seen as all important to kick-start economic growth, but the ruling UPA is a lame duck.


Ghana (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Ghana's main economic risk is the country's persisting twin deficit on the current account balance (of 9.4% in 2011) and fiscal balance (of 4% of GDP in 2011).


Kenya (Country report) (Engelstalig)

The upcoming general election period may lead to political and social instability in Kenya, comparable to 2007's election unrest.


Saudi Arabia (Country Report) (Engelstalig)

Saudi Arabia is a prosperous country due to an abundance of hydrocarbon resources and is estimated to grow by 5.6% in 2012. The country was hardly affected by contagion from the Arab Spring protests, due to substantial government hand-outs.


Oman (Country Update) (Engelstalig)

Oman's economy will grow by 4.9% in 2012, buoyed by domestic demand and external demand for its oil and gas exports. A downside risk is the uncertain global economy, especially the eurozone peripheral debt crisis and slowing growth in China.


Coping with life after debt (part 1) (Engelstalig)

In the first part of this series, we will show that debt, which has risen sharply in most advanced countries, is not necessarily a bad thing if it is at sustainable levels.


Coping with life after debt (part 2) (Engelstalig)

In part 2, we look at the post-crisis balance sheet adjustment process and conclude that (i) it will take many years to complete and (ii) the transitional phase will be economically painful.

Economisch commentaar

Eurozone: nog geen reden tot juichen

De economische activiteit in de eurozone is in het tweede kwartaal van 2012 licht gekrompen (-0,2% k-o-k). Een meevaller, aangezien veel economen -onder wie wijzelf- rekening hielden met zwaardere krimp.


Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk

Het BBP kromp zeer fors in 12K2 (-0,7% k-ok). Dit kwam met name door het diamanten regeringsjubileum en het extreem natte weer.


Economic Update Italy (Engelstalig)

With a 0.7% quarterly contraction of GDP in 12Q2, the current Italian recession is now a year old. As in the preceding quarters, the economic decline is mainly the result of falling domestic demand.


Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

This month we witness that concerns on economic growth have triggered interest rate cuts in countries around the globe. China has posted its lowest economic growth in three years.


Economic Update France (Engelstalig)

We expect a mild contraction of French GDP in 12Q2. This would be the first contraction since early 2009.