Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
Het afgelopen jaar zagen we een mager economisch herstel. Voor 2011 ligt er niet veel beters in het verschiet. Dit is uitermate teleurstellend gezien de voorafgaande stevige recessie, maar komt niet onverwacht. In de Verenigde Staten, maar ook in een aantal Europese landen, leefden consumenten jarenlang op de pof.
Themabericht
Investors are worried that rising public debt to GDP ratios in the advanced economies will eventually lead to a wave of sovereign defaults. To calm market nerves, therefore, governments have announced austerity measures to lower debt ratios to more ‘sustainable levels’.
Economisch commentaar
The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?
Themabericht
Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.
Special
This paper deals with the question whether or not it is a good idea to break up the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone).
Themabericht
Too many residential dwellings were built in Ireland for many years from the start of this century. The large number of assumptions and estimates precludes a precise estimation of the housing surplus in our analysis.
Special
The severe deterioration of asset quality in late 2007 marked the opening act of the financial crisis. A drop in global economic activity during 2008 and early 2009 was next. A wave of sovereign defaults in the industrialised world is step three.
Economisch commentaar
The finance ministers of the G20 have called for an end to expansionary fiscal policies in their latest communiqué. This can prove costly while households and firms are still busy repairing their balance sheets and facing massive headwinds.
Economisch commentaar
In the discussion on whether or not governments should bail out Greece, it has often been argued that by providing loans to Greece, the other eurozone governments are rescuing their domestic banks.
Economisch commentaar
Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.
Economisch commentaar
We expect Germany’s economy to be supported by the inventory correction as well as external demand in H1 2010. There are, however, significant downside risks to this forecast.
Economisch commentaar
Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.
Themabericht
The global financial crisis has brought the IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI’s) back to the spotlights. With large emergency loan packages, they have helped countries to deal with the severe economic shocks.
Economisch commentaar
Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.