RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie

Teleurstellend economisch herstel in 2011

Het afgelopen jaar zagen we een mager economisch herstel. Voor 2011 ligt er niet veel beters in het verschiet. Dit is uitermate teleurstellend gezien de voorafgaande stevige recessie, maar komt niet onverwacht. In de Verenigde Staten, maar ook in een aantal Europese landen, leefden consumenten jarenlang op de pof.

Themabericht

Public debt: nothing to fear but fear itself (Engelstalig)

Investors are worried that rising public debt to GDP ratios in the advanced economies will eventually lead to a wave of sovereign defaults. To calm market nerves, therefore, governments have announced austerity measures to lower debt ratios to more ‘sustainable levels’.

Economisch commentaar

Demystifying the German labour market (Engelstalig)

The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?

Themabericht

Deflation, here we come? (Engelstalig)

Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.

Themabericht

Continuing housing surplus in Ireland (Engelstalig)

Too many residential dwellings were built in Ireland for many years from the start of this century. The large number of assumptions and estimates precludes a precise estimation of the housing surplus in our analysis.

Economisch commentaar

Is the G20 making an undesirable U-turn? (Engelstalig)

The finance ministers of the G20 have called for an end to expansionary fiscal policies in their latest communiqué. This can prove costly while households and firms are still busy repairing their balance sheets and facing massive headwinds.

Economisch commentaar

Are markets mispricing sovereign default risk again? (Engelstalig)

Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.

Economisch commentaar

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt? (Engelstalig)

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.

Themabericht

The return of IFI lending (Engelstalig)

The global financial crisis has brought the IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI’s) back to the spotlights. With large emergency loan packages, they have helped countries to deal with the severe economic shocks.

Economisch commentaar

Should the Greeks go on a holiday? (Engelstalig)

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.