RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

India: Economic growth set to plunge as uncertainty rises (Engelstalig)

We have revised our economic projections for India downwards and expect the economy to contract by 2.9% in fiscal 2020/21. The economic stimulus package of 20 lakh crore is expected to prop up growth this fiscal year by 1.8ppts, but more unconventional policy measures (such as debt monetization) seem necessary.

Themabericht

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy? (Engelstalig)

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.

Themabericht

The shape of India’s exit from the COVID-19 crisis (Engelstalig)

We expect the COVID-19 crisis to cost each Indian between INR 8,000 to 16,000 in 2025 of missed economic growth compared to a benchmark scenario of no pandemic, depending on the shape of the recovery. However, if the USD 270bn recent stimulus package addresses India’s structural weakness and is properly executed, India’s economy could even emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis.

Column

Vijf redenen waarom de Britten niet verlengen

De Britten moeten snel een besluit nemen over een verlenging van de transitieperiode. Maar hoe logisch, rationeel en verstandig zo’n verlenging op dit moment ook is, we kunnen niet aannemen dat premier Johnson dit zonder slag of stoot zal doen.

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension? (Engelstalig)

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis (Engelstalig)

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.