RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Demystifying the German labour market (Engelstalig)

The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?

Themabericht

Deflation, here we come? (Engelstalig)

Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.

Economisch commentaar

Is the G20 making an undesirable U-turn? (Engelstalig)

The finance ministers of the G20 have called for an end to expansionary fiscal policies in their latest communiqué. This can prove costly while households and firms are still busy repairing their balance sheets and facing massive headwinds.

Themabericht

Is Britain the next Greece? (Engelstalig)

In our view, there are ten reasons why the UK will not go down the ‘Greek path’ anytime soon. But the new government must plug in its fiscal black hole if it wishes to retain its debt sustainability and its cherished AAA rating.

Special

Demystifying the paths towards debt sustainability (Engelstalig)

In this study the policy options: defaulting on debt obligations, withdrawing support measure for the banking sector, increasing inflation, boosting GDP growth and introducing austerity measures that governments have at their disposal are discussed.

Economisch commentaar

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt? (Engelstalig)

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.

Themabericht

The return of IFI lending (Engelstalig)

The global financial crisis has brought the IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI’s) back to the spotlights. With large emergency loan packages, they have helped countries to deal with the severe economic shocks.

Economisch commentaar

Should the Greeks go on a holiday? (Engelstalig)

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.

Economisch commentaar

Germany no longer the exportweltmeister (Engelstalig)

China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.

Economisch commentaar

Germany's 09Q4 growth can disappoint (Engelstalig)

Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.