Economisch commentaar
The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?
Themabericht
Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.
Special
This paper deals with the question whether or not it is a good idea to break up the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone).
Economisch commentaar
The finance ministers of the G20 have called for an end to expansionary fiscal policies in their latest communiqué. This can prove costly while households and firms are still busy repairing their balance sheets and facing massive headwinds.
Economisch commentaar
In the discussion on whether or not governments should bail out Greece, it has often been argued that by providing loans to Greece, the other eurozone governments are rescuing their domestic banks.
Themabericht
In our view, there are ten reasons why the UK will not go down the ‘Greek path’ anytime soon. But the new government must plug in its fiscal black hole if it wishes to retain its debt sustainability and its cherished AAA rating.
Themabericht
In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision made proposals to harmonise the oversight of banks’ liquidity. Are these new requirements even more stringent for the banking sector than the proposals for tighter capital requirements?
Special
In this study the policy options: defaulting on debt obligations, withdrawing support measure for the banking sector, increasing inflation, boosting GDP growth and introducing austerity measures that governments have at their disposal are discussed.
Economisch commentaar
We expect Germany’s economy to be supported by the inventory correction as well as external demand in H1 2010. There are, however, significant downside risks to this forecast.
Economisch commentaar
Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.
Themabericht
The global financial crisis has brought the IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI’s) back to the spotlights. With large emergency loan packages, they have helped countries to deal with the severe economic shocks.
Economisch commentaar
Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.
Economisch commentaar
China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.
Economisch commentaar
Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.