RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Egypt: a case of bad timing (Macro Comment) (Engelstalig)

A clash between the ruling military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, last weekend, threatens Egypt’s fragile economic and political stability, as it could delay a much-needed IMF deal.

Economisch commentaar

Irish economy still struggling to recover (Engelstalig)

After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.

Economisch commentaar

UK Budget: another missed opportunity (Engelstalig)

The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.

Economisch commentaar

Consument te pessimistisch gestemd

In maart kwam de indicator voor het consumentenvertrouwen uit op –39. Het is echter onterecht dat Nederlandse consumenten zo somber gestemd zijn over de ontwikkelingen van de economie.

Economisch commentaar

India’s budget wins little applause (Engelstalig)

The budget for India’s fiscal year 2012/13 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.9% of GDP this year. With a rise in tax revenue and a more realistic growth assumption, next year’s budget seems more in reach than this year.

Economisch commentaar

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps (Engelstalig)

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Economisch commentaar

Vietnam: Stay on course (Macro Comment) (Engelstalig)

After experiencing somewhat of an economic rollercoaster ride in 2011, inflation in Vietnam is finally easing. Nonetheless, Vietnam’s economic situation remains vulnerable and the government should make sure it stays on course.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update France (Engelstalig)

The sound performance in recent quarters reflects the stability of the French economy. In the eurozone, France functions as a bastion of moderate economic growth. That said, harsh austerity measures will weigh on domestic demand in the coming years.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

The emerging markets are almost all losing their growth momentum. Even China, which has been the light at the end of the tunnel for a couple of years, is now reducing its growth target to below 8%.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Spain (Engelstalig)

The Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in the last quarter of 2011. We expect a further contraction in the first quarter of the current year. Government spending cuts and tax hikes will have a negative impact on domestic demand this year.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

The UK GDP contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in 11Q4. On a positive note, household spending finally grew after 4 quarters of contraction. Going forward, falling inflation may result in stronger consumer spending.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update The Netherlands (Engelstalig)

In the fourth quarter of 2011, the Dutch economy contracted by 0.7% in real terms compared to the previous quarter. As this was the second successive quarterly contraction, statistically, the Dutch economy is in recession.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld Frankrijk

De solide prestaties in de afgelopen kwartalen weerspiegelen de stabiliteit van de Franse economie. In de eurozone fungeert Frankrijk als een bastion van gematigde economische groei.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld Spanje

De Spaanse economie kromp in het laatste kwartaal van 2011 0,3% k-o-k. Ook voor het eerste kwartaal van dit jaar verwachten wij krimp. Bezuinigingen en lastenverzwaringen zullen dit jaar een wissel trekken op de binnenlandse bestedingen.