RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Demystifying the German labour market (Engelstalig)

The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?

Economisch commentaar

Is the G20 making an undesirable U-turn? (Engelstalig)

The finance ministers of the G20 have called for an end to expansionary fiscal policies in their latest communiqué. This can prove costly while households and firms are still busy repairing their balance sheets and facing massive headwinds.

Economisch commentaar

Are markets mispricing sovereign default risk again? (Engelstalig)

Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.

Economisch commentaar

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt? (Engelstalig)

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.

Economisch commentaar

The start of a Dutch consumer recovery? (Engelstalig)

Dutch households withdrew €1.2 billion from savings accounts in October and November 2009. Does this mean that consumers are ready to increase spending? Or is this money merely meant to cover income losses?

Economisch commentaar

Should the Greeks go on a holiday? (Engelstalig)

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.

Economisch commentaar

Griekse 'boekhoudtrucs' geen nieuws

Griekenland is deze week weer in het nieuws; haar overheid zou boekhoudkundige trucs gebruiken om de staatsschuld er lager uit te laten zien dan deze is. Maar de nieuwswaarde voor wat betreft de analyse van de Griekse overheidsfinanciën is gering.

Economisch commentaar

Germany no longer the exportweltmeister (Engelstalig)

China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.

Economisch commentaar

Germany's 09Q4 growth can disappoint (Engelstalig)

Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.

Economisch commentaar

Voedselzekerheid in 2050: De opgave

Voedselzekerheid is een belangrijke randvoorwaarde voor een stabiele economische ontwikkeling en voor de sociale rust in de wereld. Een van de uitdagingen van de 21e eeuw is om voldoende voedsel te produceren voor een steeds grotere wereldbevolking.