RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Japan: The reign of Suga (Engelstalig)

Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.

Economisch commentaar

Japan: Wave of concern (Engelstalig)

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.

Economisch commentaar

Japan: Even more stimulus, yet not enough (Engelstalig)

Japan’s government has increased its stimulus package to a whopping 43% of GDP. This, together with increased central bank stimulus, will prevent bankruptcies and unemployment from rising sharply. However, Japan’s economy is already suffering and we still think it will shrink by 4.8% this year.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis (Engelstalig)

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.